Analysis of Pandemic Situation in America and Canada

 

Analysis of Pandemic Situation in America and Canada

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

This post is created at the request of Dr Sudeshna Ray, a professor from Bhopal, who has been a regular reader of my blog.

DO read and share with those, who are interested.

 

Introduction

My analysis for 7-countries of the world, where multiple waves of Pandemic surfaced, was well received by Readers. The viewership increased to more than 100, instantly. One of the readers, Dr Sudeshna Ray inquired that USA is not covered in the analysis. Actually, I did analysis for many countries, but all are not posted on blog. On her request, this post is created, which contains analysis of Pandemic situation in USA. As America is included, I thought it wise to include Canada, too, so that the continent is well represented. It can be shared, with friends in these countries.

 

America

USA has seen 3 waves, each more powerful than the previous. Currently, the values are at lower level, but rising tendency is obvious for America. Peak of first wave came around first week of March 2020 and it was 29000 daily confirmed cases. The distribution was slightly skewed and rise was found to be much faster that fall of cases. The second wave is found during third week of July 2020 and the peak value was around 70000. The skewed nature is obvious for this wave too and the reduction took longer time, again. The third wave reached a peak of around 300000 in January 2021. Currently the daily confirmed cases are oscillating around 70000 to 80000 per day, which is higher than peak of second wave. The situation is scary and now the tendency of daily confirmed cases is observed to moving up.

 

 

The doubling period for America has three troughs, representing three peaks. Since number of total confirmed cases are higher, the doubling period is found to be rising. Doubling period for the first peak was around 2 days, which became 40 days for second wave. The value of doubling period reached 52 days for the third peak and currently it has attained a value of around 130 days. The rise in doubling period is a good sign, however the numerical value must be in the range of 180-200 days for the current level of infection.

 

 

The growth rate is found to be representing the three peaks well and the values are currently at a level of 0.25% for calculation based on weekly data. The same for doubling period data is around 0.50 %.

 

 

Canada

Canada has seen two waves of Pandemic. The first wave has a peak of slightly above 2000 daily confirmed cases during April 2020. It reached to 10000 daily confirmed cases in January 2021, as second peak. Occasionally, some high number were also reported. Currently, it is undergoing another peak equal in intensity to the second peak. Hope that it does not move up further.

 

 

 

The doubling period for the first peak was 3 days, which became 45 days for the second peak. However, during the in between period, when number of cases declined, the doubling period have attained a peak of 134 days. Currently, doubling period is on the rise, but it is less than the earlier maximum value. Currently, it is at 112 days.

 

 

The growth rate of total confirmed cases in Canada represented all peaks adequately and currently on weekly basis the daily growth rate is 0.621%. both types of growth rate has declining tendency.

  

Conclusion

Although America is having favourable trend of doubling period and growth rate but the current rising trend of daily confirmed cases must be monitored carefully. Hope that weekly growth rate is not going up in next few days, else fourth wave will become inevitable. Canada is undergoing third wave and hopefully, the daily confirmed cases will decline. The doubling period has to rise further and growth rate is showing declining tendency. Hope that the analysis helps in understanding the situation in these two countries of North American Continent.

 

Read and Share. Stay safe, take care, be healthy. Regards

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar