Analysis
and Prediction of Confirmed Cases for Maharashtra on its Raising Day 01 May 2021
Dr Himanshu
Shekhar
Thank
you readers to give more than 200 views in 8 hours to my post on analysis of India. Keep reading.
Introduction
Maharashtra has been leading
total number of confirmed cases during first wave and this dubious distinction
continued even in the second wave of pandemic attack in India. Criticism,
allegations and claims were plenty, but to understand the current situation, it
was decided to watch and analyse the available data for understanding the
nature. This post of the blog discusses the highest contributing state of India.
Incidentally raising day of Maharashtra is celebrated on 01 May 2021.
Reality
The ground reality is that
Maharashtra has been contributing almost 30 to 40% of total confirmed cases
daily in India. I still wonder such large numbers, considering the excellent
social fiber and law-abiding attitude of the citizens. In last few days, Maharashtra
has been registering total confirmed cases, as slightly above 60000. The same
is depicted below.
It is clear that there have
been some stagnation in values and further rise is more or less restricted.
Doubling Period
The period in which total
confirmed cases are getting doubled is calculated and plotted as graph. It is
the time in days in which cumulative confirmed cases double.
It is observed that the
doubling period has a rise till 24.03.2021, when it reached a peak value of 182
days. This indicated a control before 24.03.2021. However, the decline after
this date is point of concern. Some confirmed case enhancing factor must have
been active after 24.03.2021, to have reduced the doubling period thereafter. To
have better assessment, the doubling period is rationalized to 1 lakh confirmed
cases and plotted.
Initial rise is captured in this
case too. However, it is observed that the peak value of 15.636 days for 1 lakh
period is attained on 09.03.2021. After that doubling period per lakh is
declining. This clearly indicates that after 10th of March the rise
in cases must be attributed to some known collective factor of the state. The decline
in doubling period is continuing even now, despite daily confirmed cases
getting stagnated.
Growth Rate
Daily growth rate calculated
on the basis of weekly duration and on the basis of doubling period are
calculated using formula, similar to that, which is used for the calculation of
compound interest in high schools. It is clear that growth rate based on week,
has a peak of around 1.8% on 07.04.2021. This means that before 07.04.2021 the
confirmed cases were rising at higher rate. However, reduction in growth rate
thereafter is a good sign. This is just contrary to the data of doubling
period. The same is reflected in calculation of growth rate based on doubling
period. This curve is showing a continuous rise from 09.03.2021.
For prediction of total
confirmed cases in future, a normal distribution curve is assumed with three
variables - peak number of cases, turnaround date and spread in time. For all
known cases till 30.04.2021, normal distribution curve is fitted. Square of
deviation from actual data is collected. The sum of square of error is
minimized using optimization algorithm for the mentioned three variables. It is
observed that optimized solution has turnaround date already achieved in Maharashtra
on 23.04.2021. The extrapolation along with actual data is shown below.
Conclusion
Although Maharashtra is still
contributing a large number of confirmed cases, but last week, there have been
stagnation in numbers. The optimization tool predicts achievement of turnaround
date already. The growth rate is also declining indicating a positive control.
However, reduction in doubling period is a point of concern, which I hope may
become non-critical in course of time. I hope that now no more case-booster
event occurs in Maharashtra to make the situation worse. Please note that it is a purely mathematical exercise. Regards.
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