Lock Down
Needed
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Thank
you readers for the giving me unconditional support through viewing my
analysis. Please note it is a purely mathematical exercise, by converting a
discrete and unconnected data using continuous distribution, for prediction as
well as assessment.
Introduction
Till one week back, I was
optimistic about non-existence of third wave in light of reduced number of
daily confirmed and deceased cases.
https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/3805764448716920548/7039368766954804280
However, as indicated in last
post, neither the daily confirmed cases reduced below 10000, nor the percentage
deceased is reduced to less than 1.0%. In light of this, the situation of last
year is likely to be repeated. Lockdown was lifted in June 2020 and peak came
somewhere in September 2020. Rather than that one more month of lockdown
extension would have given a better result, last year. This year also, the
daily confirmed cases has not gone down to expected level (10000) and with
opening of lockdown, where the slogan of “full hospital and empty hotels” is
replaced with “empty hospitals and full hotels”, the third wave is likely to
sweep India. It is purely negligence of people, who are eager to go to tourist
spots to support the dying tourism industry at the cost of third wave in the country.
Either government should do or people should restrain themselves.
Current Situation
Daily confirmed cases are monitored with respected to my prediction made on 09.05.2021 and after two months, the cases would have gone down to less than 10000 cases. However, in last 18 days, the value is around 40000, which is 4-times higher than prediction. More than the numerical value, the trend of stagnation is visible, which may be fatal.
The stagnation may be
responsible for subsequent rise in the values. Same is the situation with daily
deceased cases. This is also stagnating around 1000. Although downward trend is
observed but the value is still much above 1.0%. The current value is 1.86%,
and it is going above 2.0%, also.
Wave Calculation
The comparison of first and
second wave gave a 4-fold increase in amplitude and time duration is reduced by
a factor of 2.7. However, with same factor, the third wave will come faster and
it is an unlikely assumption. It is depicted below but is irrelevant.
Second assumption of third wave with equal magnitude as second wave is at present valid. If instead of going further down, daily confirmed cases pick up to rise from this point, the likely curve is shown below. However, pick up time will be later than predicted by this assumption.
The basic problem with such wave
type assumption is that, the duration between any two consecutive waves could
not be ascertained correctly, by any formation. If wave starts then further
prediction is possible, but the in-between period is not following any
variation. The valley between first and second wave is slightly skewed with
fall of first wave is much slower than the rise of second wave. In fact, now we
are at the falling curve of second wave, which has slowed down. The wait is for
the rise to happen. If an optimized symmetrical parabolic curve is fitted to
the curve, the lowest point of daily confirmed cases is observed on 20.07.2021
with minimum of 20000 and now we have to wait and watch the rising trend of
daily confirmed cases.
Conclusion
The third wave can be
controlled only by active participation of people. With current trend of daily
confirmed cases, third wave is being invited by the stagnation of daily confirmed
cases. The cases are not going down, as expected and now only rise is expected
by the type of negligence displayed by various parts of the country. It will be
fine if a 15 days lockdown is imposed to bring the daily confirmed cases to
less than 10000. All the best. Stay safe in unlocked India.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
