India on Path of Recovery from Second Wave and an Improbable Third Wave

 

India on Path of Recovery from Second Wave and an Improbable Third Wave

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Thank you readers for the giving me unconditional support through viewing my analysis. Please note it is a purely mathematical exercise, by converting a discrete and unconnected data using continuous distribution, for prediction as well as assessment.

 

Introduction

It has been my pleasure to carry out the optimization study on daily confirmed cases and fit a normal distribution curve with optimized mean, standard deviation and peak. The prediction was made on 09.05.2021 (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-under-control-in-india.html ), to predict a peak daily confirmed cases of second wave as around 4 Lakh. There are three aspects of concern – daily confirmed cases, which must decline below 1000 for entire India, daily deceased number, which must come down below 50 for the entire India and the possibility of third wave. This post discusses all the three aspects.

 

Third Wave Prediction

I have made an attempt to predict advent of third wave using damped vibration equation with varying amplitude and varying frequency. This was posted on 30.05.2021 and it was one the most viewed post. Thanks to all the readers.

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/prediction-of-third-wave-in-india.html

 

An attempt is made to again carryout calculation for the prediction of a third wave using data up to 25.06.2021. Correction to the amplitude and frequency is applied and prediction is made.  The amplitude is assumed to be increasing by a factor of 4 and the time duration is found to be reducing by a factor of 2.7.

Wave	Amplitude	Duration	End date
1	100000	320	05-03-2021
2	400000	119	01-07-2021
3	1600000	44	14-08-2021
4	6400000	16	30-08-2021

 

Third wave, even if it is coming, is mathematically found to be more severe in terms of daily confirmed cases (Amplitude). However the duration will be very small for this. The amplitude is found to be too high and the duration is also very small with peak being attained on 24 July 2021. This is mathematical prediction, which seems infeasible.

 

 

If a third wave similar in nature to second wave in terms of amplitude and frequency is expected, then the variation has different connotations. Around 4 lakh daily confirmed cases, and cycle time of around 120 days gives a curve matching to the second wave. The same is extrapolated to give a peak on 07.09.2021 and third wave is likely to end by 01.11.2021.

 

 

 

This perception is also likely to be infeasible, as the number of infected and vaccinated people has risen to such a large extent that spread of infection will not be effective, enough to realize a third wave. The only concern remains the slow decline of daily confirmed cases, which must be curtailed and controlled by the participation of people. The second wave should quickly attain a daily confirmed cases of less than 1000 cases. The faster, it is attained the better it will be. The daily confirmed cases and daily deceased are also reviewed.

 

Daily confirmed cases

Daily confirmed cases are monitored at regular interval after 09.05.2021, to confirm deviation from prediction. The review dates of subsequent posts were 14.04.2021, 29.05.2021, 05.06.2021 and 12.06.2021. The link to those posts are given below.

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/salient-parameters-one-week-after.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/covid-under-control-in-india-with-rider.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/india-below-1-lakh.html

 

 

 

 

The daily confirmed cases were following the predicted curve till, last week and the fall of curve was represented correctly by the optimized normal distribution curve. However, in recent past the daily confirmed cases showed a slower pace than expected and the reduction in decline rate is a concern. The daily confirmed cases are 51667 on 25.06.2021. However, daily and cumulative confirmed cases have followed the prediction for the last two months, correctly. The daily confirmed cases is exceeding prediction now.

 

 

 

Number of Deceased

The number of deceased was found to be following the daily confirmed cases. It was clear that around 1% of daily confirmed cases was exhibited as daily deceased. However, this ratio was disturbed after peak of second wave on 07 May 2021. The number of daily deceased had not declined at same rate as daily confirmed cases were declining, resulting in rise in percentage deceased.

 

 

 

 

For finding a relation, between trends of percentage deceased, an equation is developed on 29.05.2021 and it was followed for next 10 days, only.  The situation is reviewed on 05.06.2021 and the trend was valid.

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/covid-under-control-in-india-with-rider.html

 

However the trend of percentage deceased as percentage of daily confirmed cases, was valid for only 10 days. Then there was a sudden peak in percentage, followed by a period of large percentage. The deviation on 12.06.2021 was observed and mentioned in the following post.

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/india-below-1-lakh.html

 

The current value is lower than the predicted values, but still the percentage deceased is currently 2.57%. This ratio must come down below 1.00%.

 

 

 

 

Conclusion

The third wave can be controlled only by active participation of people. The trend of previous two waves with increasing amplitude and reducing time-duration gives an infeasible solution mathematically for the third wave. A third wave similar to second wave is likely to sweep India, but it can become improbable with masks are used and social distancing norms are followed. The daily confirmed cases is not falling at a faster pace. This may be one concern, but decline is more or less steady. The daily deceased is reducing but it should reach below 1.0% of daily confirmed cases. Overall, I feel third wave is unlikely and control exercised by India is very good in June 2021.

Stay safe in unlocked India.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

India below 1 Lakh

India below 1 Lakh

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Thank you readers for the giving me unconditional support through viewing my analysis. Please not it is a purely mathematical exercise, by converting a discrete and unconnected data using continuous distribution, for prediction as well as assessment.

 

Introduction

It has been my pleasure to carry out the optimization study on daily confirmed cases and fit a normal distribution curve with optimized mean, standard deviation and peak. The prediction was made on 09.05.2021 (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-under-control-in-india.html ), to predict a peak daily confirmed cases of second wave as around 4 Lakh. Although I was expecting a decline to a level of 60000 by the end of the current week, but the reduction was not that fast. Additionally, the number of deceased has shown an abnormal trend in last two days, shooting up at a very fast pace. These two aspects will be discussed in this post.

 

Daily confirmed cases

Daily confirmed cases are monitored at regular interval after 09.05.2021, to confirm deviation from prediction. The review dates of subsequent posts were 14.05.2021, 29.05.2021 and 05.06.2021. The link to those posts are given below.

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/salient-parameters-one-week-after.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/covid-under-control-in-india-with-rider.html

The same is repeated on 12.06.2021, again. The daily confirmed cases followed the falling limb of normal distribution, correctly. Although falling trend continued in last week till Tuesday (08.06.2021), after which it stagnated at around 92000 daily confirmed cases. One of the most satisfying thing is that despite unlocking various facilities, markets and offices, the weekly rise on Thursday is controlled. This shows that India has control over the weekly rise in daily confirmed cases. However, the cases failed to drop and stagnated. If it would have followed the falling trend, the case would have been less than 60000 by now (12.06.2021).

 

 

The cumulative confirmed cases, were also monitored regularly, which was showing a gap from the prediction. The most appealing part of the cumulative confirmed cases is that, the actual values are less than prediction and India is witnessing a faster control than expected by prediction. The same trend must continue.

 

 

 

Number of Deceased

The data on number of deceased has been a major concern for India. Despite fall in daily confirmed cases, the daily number of deceased is not falling at same rate. Earlier it was following the same trend as that for the daily confirmed cases, but after attainment of peak, the fall in daily number of deceased stopped. The number of deceased was maintaining a value of 1% of the daily confirmed cases, but it is rising now. The reporting of 6148 deaths two days back has been a major concern and it may be an accumulated figure of earlier 2-3 days, which were inadvertently left in accounting. However, after this also the cases clocked a value of 3403, which is higher than earlier values of around 2200 daily, for period prior to  10.06.2021. It is sure that fatality of second wave is much higher and the same is still maintained.

 

 

 

The number of deceased as percentage of daily confirmed cases was showing a quadratic rise and it was also modelled as a quadratic equation. However, for the last two days the values were much higher than prediction by the derived formula. The uncertainty prevails and the control on daily number of deceased is not available. On the date of adjustment the percentage touched 6.54%, while yesterday it was 3.71%. Both the values are much higher than prediction.

 

 

 

Conclusion

Daily number of confirmed cases are declining as per normal distribution curve. The traditional weekly rise in values on Thursdays is skipped in last week. However, rate of decline in cases have slowed down. Hope that unlocking is not holding daily confirmed cases, up. The fatalities are on the rise and compared to earlier situation, when there were scarcity of drugs, beds, and oxygen, now situation is much better. Despite this rise of number of deceased is a matter of concern. People are fed up now and so is CORONA, as attention of general masses is shifting to other dimensions. Daily deceased must decline to less than 500 at the fastest possible pace, to offset the fear. I hope that by the end of next week say by 20.06.2021, number of deceased will drop to 400 cases daily and daily confirmed cases will come below 40000. I pray that unlocking under people’s surveillance and COVID appropriate behavior may get us out of the current wave, fast.

Stay safe in unlocked India.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar 

COVID under Control in India with Rider of Number of Deceased

 

COVID under Control in India with Rider of Number of Deceased

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

I am thankful to my readers and viewers for their valuable opinions and more than 350 views on previous post entitled  “No Third Wave in India”.

 

Introduction

The prediction made on 09.05.2021, almost one month back about the possibility of a turnaround in daily confirmed cases on 07.05.2021 was well received by my readers (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-under-control-in-india.html ). The predictions were based on optimization of a normal distribution across data of daily confirmed cases.  The current post is generated to take stock of the deviation from predicted results. Additionally, the number of deceased is a major concern and the numbers are not reducing in proportion to reduction in daily daily confirmed cases.

 

Confirmed Cases

 A recap of prediction of prediction was made after one week (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/salient-parameters-one-week-after.html ). The prediction made on 09.05.2021 is plotted against daily number of confirmed cases, till 05.06.2021. The declining limb of the falling normal distribution is shown by the actual daily confirmed cases. It is really satisfying to find that the prediction is valid for over a month. The superimposed curve is shown below.

 

 

Parallel to this, if cumulative daily confirmed cases are calculated from the optimized normal distribution curve. This cumulative value is also plotted against actual cumulative confirmed cases. The actual cases are found lower than prediction and the difference between actual and prediction is continuously rising. This indicates that the actual cases are much lower and this trend must continue till June end of 2021 for better control of pandemic in India. This is really encouraging to see that the turnaround and declining number of cases are well within control.

 

 

 

Analysis of Deceased

If daily number of deceased are plotted along with daily confirmed cases, close matching of both was observed till the turnaround. When confirmed cases were rising number of deceased were also rising and vice-versa. However, after turnaround, daily confirmed cases declined but corresponding decline in number of deceased were not observed. It was pointed out in a previous post by end of May 2021 (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html). The same is extended for 06.06.2021.

 

 

The daily number of deceased stagnated at around 3000 cases and it is not declining at faster pace. This leads to gradual rise in percentage positivity rate of the country. As positivity rate is continuously rising, the same is modelled as a quadratic equation in the referred post. The same equation is valid and currently the positivity rate is around 2.55%.  

 

 

Conclusion

The daily confirmed cases are following the declining trend and we have to keep the finger crossed to see proper matching of actual cases with the prediction. So long as no surprises are visible, due to opening up of lockdown, India can be said to have controlled the Pandemic. However, the number of daily deceased cases is a matter of concern. The continuous rise in positivity rate of deceases cases as percentage of daily confirmed cases is really following a disturbing trend. The daily number of deceased has to drop. The actual situation is mortality of infected persons within one month of their long hospitalizations. This trend must be reversed or stopped. The current status of slowly unlocking the country must not result in any rise in daily confirmed cases. With this hope I reiterate that there will not be any third wave in India, if COVID appropriate behaviour is followed. My readers have expressed concern about a possible third wave in Sept-Oct 2021 due to (i) festival season (ii) postponement of many marriages to that period (iii) reduction in in-built immunity due to recovery from Pandemic, after 6 months. Let’s us hope for the best.

 

Stay safe, stay healthy, follow social distancing, and remain connected through social media. All the best.

Regards,

Dr Himanshu Shekhar