West Bengal and Bihar on 30.05.2020: COVID Analysis

West Bengal and Bihar on 30.05.2020: COVID Analysis

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: Continuing with the previous posts, In this post West Bengal and Bihar is analysed in terms of daily confirmed cases, growth factor and doubling period. The data as available from internet is considered correct for the month of May 2020.

West Bengal: Total confirmed cases 4813 with 277 new cases on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are 1775 and number of deaths are 302.

 

Daily confirmed cases is rising. Growth factor is slightly above 1 and doubling period is of the order of 14.

 

Bihar: Bihar is relatively a late starter in contributing to the number of confirmed cases. Till, April end, the cases were controlled to less than 500. However, May saw a cumulative growth in number of confirmed cases, as depicted in the cumulative confirmed case graph, below. Total confirmed cases 3376 with 80 new cases on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are 1211 and number of deaths are 15.

A quick review of the daily confirmed cases gives a clear picture of time, during which the rise has taken place. Around 19.05.2020, a sudden addition of around 350, led to sudden jump in the graph and thereafter although numbers were less, but the earlier figure of attaining less than 50 confirmed cases per day could not be repeated in daily confirmed cases.

The Growth Factor is calculated for the entire duration and it is found to be oscillating around 1. More or less the growth is found above 1, for most of the period. Average growth factor for the month of May 2020 in Bihar is 1.28, which is very high and confirmed cases are on the rise.

Doubling period for the cases in Bihar is very low and the confirmed cases have tendency to rise quickly. Currently the value is stabilizing around 9, but is varying very fast.

Concluding Remarks: The cases in West Bengal and Bihar is analysed in this post. In West Bengal, Daily confirmed cases are rising, growth factor is also slightly above 1. These 2 factors are detrimental to the control. However, the doubling period is small, which is positive sign. For Bihar, the cases started late, but in May the growth was very high, with above 1 growth rate. Doubling period is also quite low and it indicates a difficult situation in future for the state.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh on 30.05.2020: COVID Analysis

Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh on 30.05.2020: COVID Analysis

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: Various states of India, where total number of confirmed cases exceeded 10000, were analysed in previous post. These states are Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, and NCT of Delhi , apart from Maharashtra. In this post, some analysis is presented for second line of confirmed case contributors. These states contributed around 5000 cumulative confirmed cases, each. Data is collected analysed for Growth Factor and Doubling Period.

Rajasthan: Total confirmed cases 8365 with 298 new cases on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are 5244 and number of deaths are 184. Daily confirmed cases is on the rise but growth factor is around 1 and doubling period is of the order of 16.

Daily confirmed cases is on the rise but growth factor is around 1 and doubling period is of the order of 16.

Madhya Pradesh: Total confirmed cases 7645 with 192 new cases on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are 4269 and number of deaths are 334.

Daily confirmed cases is on the rise but it is stabilized by the end of May. Growth factor is around 1 and doubling period is of the order of 17.

Uttar Pradesh: Total confirmed cases 7284 with 114 new cases on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are 4244 and number of deaths are 198.

Daily confirmed cases is declining. Growth factor is lower than 1 and doubling period is of the order of 16.

 

Concluding Remarks: All 3 states discussed in this post displayed total confirmed cases between 5000 and 10000, as on 30.05.2020. Despite rising trend in daily confirmed cases and slightly more than 1 growth factor, these states have very high doubling period. All 3 are showing doubling period of more than 15 and a quick control is possible.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Tamil Nadu Delhi and Gujarat on 30.05.2020: COVID Analysis

Tamil Nadu Delhi and Gujarat on 30.05.2020: COVID Analysis

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: Analysis of Cumulative Confirmed Cases of COVID for different countries of the world, India, Maharashtra and Pune is presented in previous posts. In this post, attempt is made to analyse those states where cumulative confirmed cases have reached more than 10000, by 30.05.2020. These states are Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat, apart from Maharashtra, which is analysed, earlier. From cumulative confirmed cases, daily confirmed cases, growth factor and doubling period is calculated in this post for these three states of India.

Data Collection: Data is mainly taken from Aarogya Setu App. India on 30.05.2020 recorded 173763 total confirmed cases with a daily new cases as 7964 on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are reported as 82370 and total number of deaths are 4971. Percentage active cases are 48% and doubling period is 13 days. Maharashtra on 30.05.2020 recorded 62228 total confirmed cases with a daily new cases as 2682 on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are reported as 26997 and total number of deaths are 2098. Percentage active cases are 53% and doubling period is 13 days. India and Maharashtra are analysed in many previous posts. So the other three major confirmed case contributors are analysed.

Tamil Nadu: Tamil Nadu on 30.05.2020 recorded 21184 total confirmed cases with a daily new cases as 978 on 30.05.2020. Percentage active cases are 43% and doubling period is 14 days. The daily confirmed cases are shown below, which has a rising trend and is a point of concern.

However, the doubling period, which was as low as 5 in the beginning of May 2020, has improved to 13, by 19.05.2020. The reverse calculation can be conducted to show that now it is 14 days.

 

The growth factor of Tamil Nadu is oscillating around 1, but control effect is not visible. A value less than 1 for the Growth Factor is preferred.

 

NCT of Delhi: Delhi NCT on 30.05.2020 recorded 17386 total confirmed cases with a daily new cases as 1105 on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are reported as 7846 and total number of deaths are 398. Percentage active cases are 52% and doubling period is 14 days. For Delhi Data for 30.04.2020 could not be extracted. The daily confirmed case displayed the following trend

 

 

The growth daily factor is also calculated and the graph is always on the positive side displaying a continuous growth in numbers.

 

 

The doubling period of Delhi is continuously increasing and it is a controlling sign.

Gujarat: Gujarat on 30.05.2020 recorded 15934 total confirmed cases with a daily new cases as 372 on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are reported as 8611 and total number of deaths are 980. Percentage active cases are 39% and doubling period is 20 days.

As far as daily confirmed cases are concerned, Gujarat is showing a sudden jump on 16.05.2020 of 1057 cases. It may be an error, but the cumulative figures are matching. Leaving this odd day, the daily confirmed cases have increased in the beginning of April 2020, but in May, the value was more or less stable. The growth factor indicates the stability of values and it is more or less near 1 for Gujarat, in the month of May 2020.

The doubling period is also quite controlled and is high, which indicates a better control. The value is touching 20 days, which can definitely lead to better control, as compared to other states where it is around 13-14.

Conclusion: Tamil Nadu displayed trend of quick rise in the beginning of May 2020, but improvement of doubling period to 14 can control the quick growth in June 2020. Delhi is showing large jumps, and growth factor is also on higher side, but the doubling period is also high and a control is expected in June 2020. Gujarat, although displayed bigger numbers, but has a stable growth factor of 1 in May and doubling period has also been very high. Out of these states, Gujarat is showing a better and stable trend for control of confirmed cases.

 

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Prediction and Actual for India on 30.05.2020

Prediction and Actual for India on 30.05.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: The COVID-19 cases in India and Maharastra is analysed throughout the month of May 2020, against a pseudo-mathematical model fitted to available data. The match or deviation of actual number of confirmed cases from prediction is updated at many earlier occasion. As May 2020 is coming to an end, it is mixed reaction at various point of time. Sometimes, the numbers are reducing sometimes it is rising at faster pace. Current post takes status of confirmed cases on 30.05.2020.

India on 30.05.2020: For India, prediction made on 30.04.2020 was discarded on 17.05.2020 and a fresh prediction is made on 20.05.2020. The confirmed cases are behaving as random number. There is no relation between confirmed cases of yesterday and today. Despite that a trend is made and on 29.05.2020 the total number of cumulative cases attained 165799. The status of prediction and actual confirmed cases for India is depicted below.

 

 

It is clear that the actual confirmed cases is matching to the predictions made on 20.05.2020. In fact India displayed crossing of 1.4L on 24.05.2020 and that of 1.6L on 29.05.2020. If a slowdown is not envisaged in near future, then by 15.06.2020, the situation becomes very grave. The next thing to look at in the prediction for India is India should get less than 2.0L cumulative cases by 03.06.2020. In addition to cumulative confirmed cases, the daily confirmed cases has also reached around 7000, as per post on 29.05.2020 and it is also a negative sign in controlling the spread. In fact doubling period analysis for India has also reduced and it dropped from 12 at around 09.05.2020 to 9 on 15.05.2020. At present, calculation beyond 15.05.2020 is not possible, because double of number of confirmed cases on 16.05.2020 is not attained yet.

 

 

Maharastra on 30.05.2020: For Maharastra, predictions were made on 30.04.2020 and the same is continued to be effective till date with prediction showing a slightly higher figure. It clearly indicates that the Number of confirmed cases in Maharastra is lower than predictions made on 30.04.2020, and the difference is also increasing.

 

 

However, expecting the validity of prediction for full month may make it a perfect forecast, which is never claimed. The downwards deviation from prediction may not be a point of complacency, as the doubling period is not in line.  For Maharastra, Doubling period became 8 on 16.05.2020. This reduction is again a matter of concern, as turnaround is pushed away by this trend.

 

 

Pune on 30.05.2020: Pune on 29.05.2020 registered total confirmed cases of 7012, but active cases were much smaller. The variation at Pune followed the prediction, made on 26.05.2020. The variation is shown below.

 

 

The doubling period for Pune is found to around 10 on 15.05.2020, which is better than India and Maharastra during that period.

 

Conclusion: Overall, the fresh prediction made for India on 20.05.2020 is valid for last 10 days. The prediction made for Maharastra on 30.04.2020 is retained and it is slightly overestimated than actual. As far as doubling period is concern, it is bad for both India and Maharastra, as it is reduced to the level of 8-9.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

COVID Control in India: Doubling Period Hypothesis

COVID Control in India: Doubling Period Hypothesis

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: The previous post on analysis of active cases in India gave insight into the current and desired value of doubling period of each parameter. It became obvious that subtraction of recovered cases and deceased cases from total confirmed cases gives active cases. The doubling period for Deceased should be very high (~ 20-25). The doubling period of confirmed cases must be moderate and preferably as high as possible. A reasonable value of 12-13 is prevailing at present, as discussed in previous posts. The doubling period of recovered cases should be as low as possible, but some finite feasible practical value may be assigned. It may be in the range of 5-8 in general. Considering various doubling period, analysis for hypothetical cases, using self-developed mathematical model, is conducted, using data from Aarogya Setu on 28.05.2020, as baseline.

Test Run: As per Aarogya Setu app, on 28.05.2020, total number of confirmed cases in India is 158323, total number of recovered cases are 67692 and total number of death till date is 4531. For a preliminary study, Doubling Period for Confirmed cases, recovery cases and death cases are taken as 13, 8 and 12, respectively. This is reference test case for mathematical model. Then variation of various parameters are shown in histogram, below.

 

 

The height of each column represents total number of confirmed cases, which is rising. Accordingly, the recovery figures are also rising. The death cases are also rising with time, but it is not visible predominantly due to small value, as compared to other parameters. The most surprising thing is reduction in active cases, which is visible from height of the green column, with progress of time. The current active cases on 28.05.2020, stands at 86100, which becomes 62595 on 17.06.2020, with this hypothesis.

 

 

For better appreciation of the conclusion, the histogram column for each day is separated and presented below. All four parameters are presented and the reduction in active cases over period of time is clearly visible.

The same can be appreciated with the simple x-y plot.

 

 

 

Analysis: When analysis is conducted by varying the parameters, it must be understood, that analysis has certain limitations. Here the doubling period of each type of case is independent of each other in calculation. They are combined to get the active cases at any date. One peculiarity of this independent of data is that if doubling period of death cases has increased, ideally, it is good sign. It indirectly indicates that number of deaths are not increasing at faster pace. But in this mathematical model, this results in increase in number of active cases on 17.05.2020. For example, for doubling period of death cases as 20, the number of active cases on 17.06.2020 becomes 67918, which is higher than what is calculated for doubling period of death as 12.

The most ideal situation is reduction in doubling period of recovery, which is practically attempted and which is supported in this mathematical model also. If the recovery period is reduced from 8 to 7.5, keeping all other doubling period as in previous section (12 for confirmed cases and 12 for deaths cases), the number of active cases on 17.06.2020 will drastically come down to 15701, as shown below.

Another control can be exercised by increasing doubling period of confirmed case. If other parameters are kept same, and doubling period of confirmed cases is changed to 15, the number of active cases on 17.06.2020 reduces to 1640. This is depicted below.

Conclusion: The doubling period for confirmed cases, recovered cases and death cases are adjusted to attain and predict turnaround using mathematical model. It is observed that the prediction for next 15 days can be easily done based on the practical values and a turnaround can be visible. The results are tabulated below.

 

Doubling Period (day)			Numbers of cases as on 17.06.2020
Confirmed cases	Recovered Cases	Deaths Cases	Confirmed cases	Recovered Cases	Death Cases	Active Cases
13	8	12	459904	382924	14385	62595
13	8	20	459904	382924	9062	67918
13	7.5	12	459904	429817	14385	15701
15	8	12	398949	382924	14385	1640

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Assessment of Active Cases of COVID – 19 in India

Assessment of Active Cases of COVID – 19 in India

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Thank you viewers for encouragement and positive feedbacks. Hope that I remain negative, despite the positivity bestowed on me.

Introduction: In all the previous posts, attention is focused on cumulative and daily number of confirmed cases, for analysis or prediction. Actually, the confirmed cases and number of deceased were reliably obtained from different sources and they were found matching, also. However, number of recoveries and number of active cases were found different at different sites. Additionally, data for Indian states are also not available for analysis, from one source. In the current post, data from one of the sites, where recovered cases were given, is used to get certain other parameters and trends, which were not explored earlier.

Data collection: The data obtained from the site is available till 19.05.2020, only and recent trend could not be derived. The curve is plotted below for four parameters – Confirmed cases, Recovered cases, Deceased cases and Active cases.

At any point of time, the number of confirmed cases is equal to sum of other three cases. No prediction can be made from the slope of the curves at any point of time, because it becomes a qualitative exercise. For getting an insight, the data is processed further for analysis.

Analysis: The percentage or fractional value of other cases with respect to cumulative confirmed cases at that point of time is plotted. The graph clearly indicates that number of active cases were on decline and so was the variation of percentage death. The percentage recovery was increasing. As far as plot is concerned, active and recovery percentages are plotted on primary of left y-axis. On same plot, value of death percentage was too small to depict. So death fraction is shown on secondary or right y-axis. The values of death fractions are very low as compared to other two. Variation for all three were positive trends, but it must be kept in mind that the data up to 19.05.2020 is only analyzed, here

As per percentage of confirmed cases, the recovered percentage must exceed active percentage, for better control of Pandemic. The recovered percentage move up faster to reach a level of 80-85%, so that control and turnaround is clearly and conclusively visible. The data is further analyzed for the doubling period for each of the parameter. For this case data from 15.03.2020 to those dates, where doubling period could be ascertained for each case is considered.

The doubling period is found more for Active cases and it is found higher than confirmed case doubling period. This indirectly indicates that, number of confirmed cases is taking less time to double than time taken by number of active cases to double. At equal potency, this indicates a higher percentage of recovery and death combined. The concern is that death percentage is also taking almost similar time to double. Actually, the doubling period for death should be very high and doubling period of recovery should be very low. Ideally, the doubling period should have a sequence Death > Active > Confirmed > Recovery.

Conclusion: The recovery data is analyzed for the first time in any post of my blog. It is clear that the recovery percentage as compared to confirmed cases is rising and it is good sign to exhibit control. However, the doubling period needs further lowering for recovery data to 3-4 days. The confirmed cases, active cases must have a doubling period of exceeding 20 days. The doubling period for death must be 25-30 days for better control.

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Analysis of COVID Cases in India

Analysis of COVID Cases in India

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Thanks to all the viewers to give 50 views to previous post in 5 hours. Please continue to give your comments for more mathematical exercises.

Introduction: The number of confirmed cases in India is increasing at a very high pace and it is at 145380 total confirmed cases on 26.05.2020, as per Aarogya Setu app. The addition in last 24 hours is 6535. Similarly, total number of recovered, so far is 60491, with recovery in last 1 day is 2770. Similarly, in last 1 day 146 new death cases are reported, making the deceased count to 4167. The current status is depicted below, in graph.

Analysis: For India, percentage death over total confirmed cases is calculated and depicted in figure above. The death percentage has reduced in last 20 days and has gone below 3%, now. Exponential curve is fitted to total confirmed cases and the prediction is made for the total number of confirmed cases also for India. As per this prediction, the number of confirmed case is likely to touch 200000 by 01.06.2020.

The number of deceased is also rising in same pace and an exponential curve is fitted to this curve also. By 30.05.2020, more than 5000 deceased are predicted by this fit. 

Future is unknown, but the cases are rising in India at a tremendous pace. The control is not visible in near future. The doubling period is also calculated and it is possible to calculate the value till 12.05.2020, where it is 13.

Conclusion: Analysis for India on 26.05.2020, indicate that Total number of confirmed cases will reach 200000 by 01.06.2020. The total number of deceased will also be reaching 5000 by 30.05.2020. The prevailing doubling rate of 13 days has to be raised further to get a turnaround in India. 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar