Salient Parameters one Week after Turnaround of Second Wave

Salient Parameters one Week after Turnaround of Second Wave

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Thanks you readers for giving more than 200 views to my previous post on prediction of turnaround. This weekend, I am taking stock of situation one week after the predicted turnaround.

 

Introduction

When number of daily confirmed cases were almost oscillating around 400000, during 30.04.2021 to 09.05.2021, optimizer is run again on 09.05.2021 and it was found that turnaround has already happened on 07.05.2021, 2 days before the date of prediction. Although it is a known fact that daily confirm cases are higher on Thursdays and Fridays, but it is but natural to rejoice and satisfy ourselves with the available information. Although, as expected, there is a rise in daily confirmed cases on Thursday 13.05.2021 and daily confirmed cases rose from 329942 on 11.05.2021 (Technology Day) to 348421 on 12.05.2021 to 362727 on 13.05.2021. The daily confirmed cases are bound to rise today, i.e. on 14.05.2021. We have to keep our fingers crossed to see that further rise due to festivals are not taking place, in daily confirmed cases on weekends and thereafter in next week. Current post discusses current situation in India, for different parameters.

 

Confirmed Cases

The optimized normal distribution curve is superimposed over actual daily confirmed cases and one week after prediction, the values are still following the nature of prediction.

 

 

Better appreciation will come, if cumulative confirmed cases are plotted for prediction and actuals. The cumulative confirmed cases will have a continuously rising vales with time, without display of any daily oscillations. The curve is smoother, as shown.

 

 

It is clear from the curve that the cumulative confirmed cases are rising monotonically in almost a straight line fashion. The curve is expected to curl down and the point of inflection is already achieved for the curve. However, we have to wait for one more week to see that actual reduction in rate of rise of cumulative confirmed cases are taking place. If by 20.05.2021, we are getting less than 300000 daily confirmed cases, we, the Indians collectively are on a right track for recovery.

 

Control Parameters

Doubling period and daily growth rate are considered as control parameters. As far as doubling period is concerned, it is continuously dipping and the current value as reached 46 days. The continuously dipping curve of doubling period must start rising up, so that proper and conclusive statement of turnaround can be made. Currently, the reducing trend of doubling period is a concern.

 

 

Daily growth rate is also one of the parameters for study of trend. It is calculated using compound interest formula (high school) for seven days duration. One week duration is considered, as daily confirmed cases has a weekly oscillating trend. The value of daily confirmed cases exceeded 2.00% on 28.04.2021 and remained there for 3-4 days. After that, it is reducing at a slow pace. The reduction in daily growth rate is a favorable sign, indicating a control. Current value of daily growth rate is 1.66%.

 

Conclusion

The current status of daily confirmed cases is on the decline and is currently following the turnaround curve predicted on 09.05.2021. The cumulative confirmed cases are also following the predicted trend. However, a reduction in the slope of cumulative confirmed cases is still to come. Once that point of inflection is achieved then conclusive evidence of reduction can be assumed. The daily growth rate is also reducing, giving a positive indication for the turnaround. The doubling period is still reducing and is a point of concern. Next post will concentrate on trend of doubling period and future expectation from doubling period, for total control of daily confirmed cases in the country.

 

Do read and share. Keep a positive mind in negative body. Take care and be safe. Regards,

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar