World at 1 Crore Confirmed Cases on 28.06.2020

World at 1 Crore Confirmed Cases on 28.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: As India attained 5.0 lakh total confirmed cases on 27.06.2020, other countries of the World were also contributing significantly to the confirmed cases of the Pandemic COVID-19. This resulted in tremendous rise clocking 1 Crore total confirmed cases on 28.06.2020. 1 Crore is equivalent to 100.0  Lakh or 10,000,000 or 10 Million or 0.01 Billion. The magnanimity of number in itself is great disturbing fact and such big numbers were heard for counting population only. The current post analyses, status of Pandemic in the World for the different parameters. For reference, the current world population is 7,79,43,61,370 (7.79 Billion). Current status on 28.09.2020 for Coronavirus Cases in the world is as follows:

Total Cases: 10,088,576, Total Deaths: 501,442, Total Recovered: 5,466,534

 

Confirmed Cases: Total confirmed cases of the world is rising continuously and in last 24 hours, very large jump in seen in the confirmed cases. An exponential curve is fitted, which has activation factor much less than that for India or any other states of India. The activation factor is 0.045 for India, while for the world, it is only 0.02. Since population affected in bigger, the pre-exponential term is bigger for World.

A linear fit is also attempted with 30.03.2020 as reference date and the confirmed cases in the world is rising at a steady rate of around 105,000 (1.05 lakh) per day. The daily confirmed cases is also plotted for the world. It is showing a sudden jump in last 24 hours from around 1.88 Lakh to around 3.17 Lakh. This jump may be a result of reporting error from different sites.

 

Derived Parameters: Some of the derived parameters like growth factor of daily confirmed cases and doubling period for the total confirmed cases is also calculated and plotted against time for the world. The growth factor of the world, in general is oscillating around with factor moving around 1 and average value in June 2020 is 1.046183. However, if last 24 hours data is removed, then growth factor in June 2020 for World is 1.0225.

Doubling period of the world for total confirmed cases is also calculated and shown below. It was rising during month of Feb 2020, but it got a dip and now again it is rising. The current value of 38 days is a really commendable value and such high values indicates slower growth of Pandemic. The cumulative daily growth rate comes out to be 1.84% for the World.

Conclusion: Daily rate of rise of confirmed cases of the world is around 1.05 lakh and it is almost steady for the last around 80-90 days. The major contributing countries like USA, Russia, Brazil, India and Peru must show some restrictions to control this rapidly rising trend. The growth factor for the world is slightly more than 1, but doubling period is rising and is currently 38 days. This amount to cumulative average daily growth rate of 1.84%. The current death percentage is 4.79% of the total confirmed cases, for the world.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

India at 5.0 Lakh on 27.06.2020

India at 5.0 Lakh on 27.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: As described in previous posts about all the states of India, India will be achieving 5.0 Lakh after 1000 hrs on 27.06.2020 and the same became true. In addition to this each state of India contributed to this distinction in own way. The situation really require a people movement to spread awareness for control of Pandemic in India. Current post analyses confirmed cases at India, Maharashtra and Delhi, also on 27.06.2020. 

 

Breaking News: The news about spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in India is in real sense a Breaking News, as it breaks the heart, soul, courage, enthusiasm, efforts and commitment of people of India, who in a spirit of attaining the dubious distinction of attaining the crown of most populous country of the world is attaining many high numerical values in terms of COVID-19 cases. It is also mentioned now that India has 1 confirmed cases in every 13 person. On 27.06.2020, it is really heartrending to find many breaking revelations about India for the Pandemic cases.

Ø  Total number of confirmed cases in India crossed 500000 (Five Lakhs).

Ø  Daily confirmed cases in India crossed 18000.

Ø  Total confirmed cases in Maharashtra crossed 1.50 lakhs

Ø  Daily confirmed cases in Maharashtra crossed 5000.

Ø  Total confirmed cases in Delhi crossed 75000.

Ø  Total recovered cases in Tamil Nadu crossed 40000.

Ø  Total confirmed cases in Gujarat crossed 30000.

It is really difficult to analyse the confirmed cases in light of such tremendous rate of rise and after understanding the gravity of the situation.

 

Confirmed cases: Daily confirmed cases for India, Maharashtra and Delhi is just plotted to understand that there is no leveling or falling back option. No turnaround is possible in light of such great rise in each contributing factor. It seems a free defenseless population is given to COVID-19 to spread havoc. In fact such situation is ideal for the calculation of reproduction rate, discussed in one of the previous posts.

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-concept-of-r-naught-r0-for.html

Hoping against hope, daily and cumulative confirmed cases for India till 27.06.2020, when India registered 508953 total confirmed cases, is plotted. An attempt is also made to predict a turnaround, which is likely not before 31.07.2020, with peak daily confirmed cases of 22842.

For Maharashtra, cumulative confirmed cases on 27.06.2020 is 152765 and in last 24 hours, 5024 new confirmed cases are recorded. Despite this, trend is Maharashtra is always favorable from Mathematical calculation point of view and current date is always coming as date of turnaround. However, there is continuous rise in confirmed cases in Maharashtra and there is no control visible, except for the claims and counter claims about only 4500 testing conducted at Mumbai.

Delhi recorded 3460 confirmed cases in last 24 hours and has 77240 total confirmed cases as on 27.06.2020. The trend in Delhi is difficult for statistical methods to handle properly. It gives a turnaround next year July (04.07.2021) with peak daily confirmed cases as 16019. If mathematics is to be believed, it seems, later on, only Delhi will be contributing confirmed cases to India.

The mathematical model integrating contribution of all states in the prediction for India is to be developed, so that realistic estimate can be made for India, as a whole or as a conglomerate of states. Currently, India is also treated as one of the geographical entity, like any other state and calculations are made.

 

Conclusion: It is irony that Indians are now scapegoats for the scientific experiment called Pandemic. In absence of any vaccine, medicine or treatment, prevention is better than cure is to be exercised and faster it is understood by the masses, the better, it will be. Blaming, higher number of tests, poor government efforts, feigning helplessness and playing with statistical data, may on paper or in public debate, get some ground, but the fact of the matter is the Pandemic is uncontrolled in India. Unless masses take care of themselves, there is nothing that can help people, now. May good sense prevail on people at the earliest.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Analysis of All States of India on 27.06.2020

Analysis of All States of India on 27.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: On 27.06.2020, total confirmed cases in India will be exceeding 5.0 lakhs, but before that data is published on Aarogya Setu, a quick look at the various statistics for all the states of India is presented. The situation for 35 identified areas within India on 27.06.2020, before 1000 hrs is compiled in this post. The data for percentage recovery, death and active cases are considered. In Aarogya Setu app, total 38 geographical divisions in India are given, but last 3 namely Daman & Diu, Dadar and Nagar Haveli and Lakhadweep has zero cases against each head. These three are discarded and data is presented in this post for 35 regions.

 

Total Confirmed Cases: In the previous posts, Maharashtra, Delhi and Tamil Nadu have been analysed, as they contributed maximum in terms of total confirmed cases. These 3 states account for more than 50000 confirmed cases, each. In fact Maharashtra has more than 1.40 Lakh total confirmed cases as on 27.06.2020 and after 1000 hrs, with the current trend it may be crossing the dubious distinction of 1.50 lakh total confirmed cases. There are 9 other regions in the Bracket of 10000 to 50000 total confirmed cases, which is led by Gujarat, followed by Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. 11 regions have between 1000 to 10000 total confirmed cases and 12 regions have less than 1000 reported confirmed cases. However, there is a discrepancy in total confirmed cases. For India it is showing 490401 total confirmed cases, but sum of all the geographical region gives 482278 with a difference of 8123. This is probably due to adjustments made on 17.06.2020 for total number of confirmed cases.

 

Percentage Recovered: The trend of percentage recovery in all 35 regions of India is accounted. The best recovery percentage is from Meghalaya, which is 91.3%. However, total confirmed cases is only 46, out of which 42 recovered, and 1 death is also accounted. Next is Tripura, which has 1290 total confirmed cases and 1019 recovered cases giving a percentage of 78.99%. However, among the states, which have more than 10000 total confirmed cases and have better recovery is Rajasthan. Out of 16296 confirmed cases, 12840 recovered gives percentage of 78.79%. The regions showing more than 70% recovered cases are Chandigarh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Andman & Nicobar Island, Gujarat, Odisha, Chhatishgarh and Jharkhand, in sequence. The sequence of states in 60-70% recovery rates in reducing percentage are Punjab, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Karnataka, Delhi and Jammu & Kashmir.

 

Percentage Death: Gujarat has the highest recorded death percentage of 5.93% on 27.06.2020. Out of 29520 confirmed cases, 1753 deaths are recorded, as on 27.06.2020. Two regions showing 4-5% death percentage are Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, in sequence. 3-4% deaths are recorded as on 27.06.2020 at West Bengal, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh in sequence of reducing percentage. The states in 2-3% bracket for death percentage in reducing values are Punjab, Rajasthan, Meghalaya and Telangana. 25 regions have death percentage less than 2% in India as on 27.06.2020.

 

Percentage Active Cases: Active cases are obtained by reducing recovered and death cases from total confirmed cases. Most of the contributing states and regions with higher number of confirmed cases are lying in the range of 30-60%. Dadar and Nagar Haveli is showing largest number of percentage active cases. Out of 155 cases, only 32 recovered making active cases as 123. It amounts to 79.35%. The other regions with more than 55% of active cases are Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Goa, Ladhak, Puducherry and Telangana in decreasing percentages. Meghalaya has only 6% active cases, but it has very low reported confirmed cases.

 

Top 4 contributing states: The status of top 4 confirmed cases contributing states are given below separately. Percentage recovery and death both percentages are high for Gujarat, making it the state with least number of active cases. Delhi has less number of percentage active cases as compared to Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Tamil Nadu has the lowest death percentage.

Conclusion: Before India acquires the dubious distinction of clocking 5.0 lakh total confirmed cases, this post is an attempt to understand the spread of Pandemic in India through numbers. The percentage active, recovered and death cases are compiled as on 27.06.2020 and the values for top 4 contributing states are also given separately. India has to somehow act in the direction of controlling the Pandemic, which is spreading unabated through the population. I still wonder, with so much coverage, propaganda and awareness, where from new cases are coming in large numbers daily.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Uncontrolled Rising Trend in India and Delhi

Uncontrolled Rising Trend in India and Delhi

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Thanks to readers, friends, seniors, colleagues and acquaintances, who have given a good viewership and also given valuable feedback time to time to the posts.

 

Introduction: The confirmed cases in India is rising at a very fast pace and daily confirmed cases are also rising. It is a matter of concern that after showing an almost stagnant daily rise in confirmed cases, at around 10000, for around 7 days, now the rise has again started at very fast pace. The 4 major contributing states continued to add to the numbers, but Delhi has contributed in unique way. Delhi left behind Tamil Nadu on 24.06.2020 and after that the daily rise is almost equivalent to that from Maharashtra. This post tries to explore India and Delhi as on 26.06.2020.

 

Feedbacks: On of my friends from Bangalore Shri Raj Narayan Sharma indicated on 25.06.2020 – “Delhi ahead of Mumbai … but Delhi is testing almost 20k per day while Mumbai only around 4.5k.” This was a useful input in terms of reporting confirmed cases. On investigation, this information was found to be correct.  If number of testing is deliberately controlled then probably, data like confirmed cases per unit testing is to be accounted. If Mumbai is showing around 1200 to 1300 confirmed cases in 4500 tests, indicating around 4 tests per confirmed cases. For Delhi, around 3600 confirmed cases are found with 20000 tests, indicating around 5-6 testing needs to detect a confirmed cases. Although Delhi is reported to be moving in confirmed cases at very high pace, but test per case is high and probably Mumbai is worst hit by the Pandemic. 

Another Senior from Calcutta Shri Jeevitesh Kumar commented on 23.06.2020 on the trend of low confirmed cases on Tuesday and high confirmed cases on Thursday as – “Possibly due to the no. of people, who are infected are out in the mid-week for work and reporting on Thursday. It also gives trend that if people are indoor Saturday/Sunday, cases doesn’t rise much. My understanding.” The observation seems to be correct and it will be really a boon to humanity in India, if infected people stays back. URL of the post is as follows:

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/weekly-trend-of-growth-factor-in-india.html

My Friend Shri Dayanand Kumar has always been commenting and for the post on conversion of exponential variation to linear variation, he commented on 23.06.2020 – “Only one way is that everyone has to be hopeful for improvement. And obviously we have to remain vigilant also.” URL of the post is as follows:

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/prediction-for-total-confirmed-cases-in.html

Viewer’s comments are my asset and I always admire their views, comments, suggestions and support. I do appreciate the comments of Shri JN Verma on the post, regularly.

 

Status on 26.06.2020: One of the enthusiasts has posted the following trend, which is likely to be reflected in Aarogya Setu after 1000 hrs on 26.06.2020. It is some sort of a prior information. The last column, containing percentage is added by me.

 

India/States	Confirmed Cases	Active Cases	% Active Cases
India	490880	189979	38.70
Maharashtra	147741	63342	42.87
Delhi	73780	26586	36.03
Tamil Nadu	70977	30067	42.36
Uttar Pradesh	20193	6463	32.01

 

Clearly, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu has more percentage of active cases than the national average. Delhi has marginally lower active percentage, while Uttar Pradesh is much lower in terms of percentage active cases.

 

Although, attempt is made to simulate the confirmed cases using linear variation, but the trend is still looking as exponential. In fact, there was small change in daily confirmed cases during 05.06.2020 to 11.06.2020. This resulted in bringing the actual value lower than prediction by exponential variation. If that decline is accounted by offset of exponential curve. The curve is still following the same exponential variation. In fact the daily confirmed cases variation is alarming for India.

 

It is clear from the variation of daily confirmed cases that the variation is in the form of waves with dips during Sunday to Tuesday. If dip during this period is not high, the cases will continue to rise in the week. This is just an observation from the curve of daily confirmed cases and previous analysis.

Delhi is behaving a peculiar way with more and more confirmed cases surfacing. In fact daily confirmed cases are equivalent to Maharashtra, now. The total and daily confirmed cases are plotted for Delhi. Total cases exceeded 70000 and the same is show as smooth curve on left axis. The daily confirmed cases have variations and it is shown on right axis with peak value touching 4000.

 

Conclusion: Both India and Delhi has a very high rate of rise in confirmed cases. India is still at the rising limb and awareness has probably not percolated well with the masses to maintain proper vigil and control of the Pandemic. The control of Pandemic should be a people’s movement and the same must be attempted by all. Hope for a better future, faster.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Prediction for Total Confirmed Cases in India using Linear Variation

Prediction for Total Confirmed Cases in India using Linear Variation

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: Many posts in this blog predicted variation of daily and total confirmed cases as exponential rise with time. Even after fitting with minimization of Chi-square for the available data, when extrapolation is made, the curve for the actual confirmed cases are found to be bending downwards. The actual confirmed cases are found to be on lower side, as compared to extrapolated simulation. This clearly indicates that the numerical values are simulated by exponential variation for the available data, but the slope is always overestimated, resulting in more deviation as extrapolation goes further ahead in future. Although a turnaround by 25 July 2020 with very high 21000 daily confirmed cases was also calculated by Chi-sqaure optimization of normal distribution curve, but the recent rise in daily confirmed cases are very high, which can send any such prediction for a toss.

Mathematical Treatment: Following equation is used for the confirmed cases: C = Ae^mt, where A is pre-exponential term and m is activation term. The activation term has very significant role is ascertaining the slope of the curve. Higher value of ‘m’ results in very high rate of rise of values. Most of the time the value of m is less than 1 and a typical value is 0.05. In fact, when slope of any such exponential curve is calculated, dC/dt = Ame^mt = mC. Clearly, the absolute value of confirmed cases are simulated but slope is overestimated. The requirement of correct modelling demands value of variable to be rising with same pace as exponential curve, but the slope should rise at a slower pace. Such dilemma and contradiction led to overestimation of confirmed cases, every time after a gap of 10-15 days. As confirmed cases are definitely rising at a faster pace than linear variation, because the curve has a rising slope, but the estimate with linear variation is proposed.

Linear variation: For fitting linear variation over the available data, the number of confirmed cases on 15.05.2020 is taken as 0 and the rise at the rate of 10850 confirmed cases. Although current confirmed cases are rising at a rate of 15000 per day, but lower rise rate is assumed to compensate for lower rise rate in May and early June. Additionally, a reduction in daily confirmed cases in India is also contemplated. The variation is plotted with actual and exponential variation predicted on 03.06.2020.

 

The prediction made with linear variation fits well to the data of June till 22.06.2020 and from this further prediction is made for total number of confirmed cases in India. The same is depicted below.

 

Conclusion: The earlier assumption of exponential variation is replaced with linear variation with 15.05.2020 as reference. The daily rate of rise is fixed at 10850 and the simulated curve till 23.06.2020 is generated. Prediction using linear variation is shown till 10 July 2020 and by June end 5.0 Lakhs confirmed cases are calculated. It is also calculated to exceed 6.0 Lakhs confirmed cases by 10.07.2020.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Weekly Trend of Growth Factor in India for Pandemic

Weekly Trend of Growth Factor in India for Pandemic

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Tuesday --> Low: Thursday --> High 

 

Introduction: India is witnessing a very bad of Pandemic and the confirmed cases are rising at a very fast pace in the country. By analysing the growth factor of daily confirmed cases, an attempt is made in this post to understand the weekly trend of rise. It is surprising to find that the lowest growth factor is recorded on Tuesday, while the highest growth factor is recorded on Thursday for the major contributing states of India.

Trend in India: The growth factor of daily confirmed cases for India for the month of June 2020 is plotted. Crest and trough of the plot is monitored for any trend.

 

It is clear that a high growth factor of 1.17 is recorded on 18.06.2020 (Thursday). Another peak is observed on 12.06.2020 (Friday) as 1.10. Yet another peak is observed on 03.06.2020 (Wednesday), as 1.09. Similarly, the lower value of 0.93 is observed on 16.06.2020 (Tuesday). Another lower value is seen on 02.06.2020 (Tuesday). This type of trend analysis led to a hypothesis that growth factor is generally lowest on Tuesday, while it is the highest on Thursday. This hypothesis is observed for the 4 major contributing states of India.

States of India: Four major contributing states of India, namely Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat are considered. The growth factor for daily confirmed cases are calculated for each for the month of June 2020. A stacked line-plot is generated. In the stack plot, for any date on x-axis, the curves are added to the previous curve, as per available value. In the plot, the curve for Maharashtra (the lower most) is the actual growth factor curve for the state. The curve depicted by Tamil Nadu is basically sum of growth factors of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. This continues and the curve shown against Gujarat (top) is cumulative sum of growth factors of all 4 states.

 

 

All the peaks of the cumulative curve (top) is lying on Thursday namely 04.06.2020, 11.06.2020 and 18.06.2020. This clearly indicates that Thursdays are showing the highest rise in confirmed cases, as compared to any other date. When troughs are accounted, they all fall on Tuesdays, namely 02.06.2020, 09.06.2020 and 16.06.2020. This may be a coincidence for the month of June 2020 and for the data available, but definitely, a trend is emerging for the rise in confirmed cases in the countries and its states.

Conclusion: Growth factor is rise in daily confirmed case over previous day. It is independent of total number of confirmed cases and is a rationalized parameter. It is observed that there is always the highest cumulative growth factor, recorded on Thursdays of the weeks. Additionally, the growth factors have the lowest value on every Tuesdays of the weeks. This is definitely a better parameter for understanding the behavior of the Pandemic in the country and its state.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

India at 4.0L and Delhi Competing Tamil Nadu for Confirmed Cases

India at 4.0L and Delhi Competing Tamil Nadu for Confirmed Cases

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: India crossed 4.0 Lakh confirmed cases on 21.06.2020 and in last week the growth was slower, making all predictions based on exponential variation and normal distribution, incorrect. The rate is much slower than expectations and rather than thinking of such variations, now simple linear variation is attempted in the post. Additionally, on 21.06.2020, the total number of cases in Delhi became almost comparable to the total confirmed cases at Tamil Nadu. Both the incidences are very disturbing. This post analyses situation in India and Delhi.

India: Total cumulative cases in India on 21.06.2020 is reported to be 410461. The doubling period has improved to 19 days, but the growth factor is always more than 1 in complete last week. To consider the variation of total confirmed cases in India, it crossed 10K on 14 April 2020. 1.0 Lakh cases are recorded on 19.05.2020, which is around 35 days. The total confirmed cases crossed 2.0 Lakhs on 03.06.2020, taking almost 15 days to add 1.0 lakh cases. The total confirmed cases exceeded 3.0 lakhs on 13.06.2020, after 10 days. The 4.0 lakhs on 21.06.2020 means a gap of 8 days in adding 1.0 lakh new confirmed cases. At this rate, adding another lakh total confirmed cases will take less than 8 days and by month end, numbers will definitely exceed 5.0 lakh. 

As the numbers are found to be deviating from earlier predictions based on exponential variation and normal distribution, a simple linear equation is fitted to the data till 21.06.2020 and extrapolated to get the total number of confirmed cases in future. Although curve is having a slight upward tilt, but hopefully, linear variation for next 15 days may be sufficient. The prediction is extrapolated from data of 21 days of June 2020 to get the total confirmed cases up to 10 July 2020.

 

 

Delhi: The total number of confirmed cases in Delhi on 21.06.2020 is 56746, while the same in Tamil Nadu is 56845. Thus Delhi is fast catching up Tamil Nadu in this respect. The variation of Delhi and Tamil Nadu for same scale for the 21 days in June 2020 is plotted. It is clear that Delhi is having a sudden high rate of rise after 18.06.2020, before which both the curves were moving almost parallel. 

On daily basis, Delhi is contributing almost 800-1000 extra confirmed cases, as compared to Tamil Nadu. Number of deaths is also high in Delhi and despite having equivalent number of total confirmed cases, situation in Delhi is bad.

Conclusion: The variation of total confirmed cases in India is assumed to be varying linearly with time, rather than exponentially. The prediction for India using linear variation gives around 5.0 Lakh total confirmed cases by June end and around 6.0 Lakh cases by 10 July 2020. The control in Delhi is to be exercised, so that some control is possible. Total number of cases are still rising at a disturbing rates at all places and this is a matter of concern.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Analysis of Recovered Cases trend for India on 20.06.2020

Analysis of Recovered Cases trend for India on 20.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: After deliberating confirmed cases for many previous posts, an attempt is made in previous post to analyse the nature of death-pattern due to Pandemic in India. URL is given below:

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/analysis-of-deceased-in-india-till.html

To get some solace from negativity, an attempt in this post is made to analyse the recovered cases and get some positivity, regarding spread of Pandemic in the country. Data up to 19.06.2020 is taken for analysis.

Total Recovery: The variation of total recovered cases, on a particular date has a rising trend and the variation can be assumed to be an exponential curve. On 19.06.2020, 204711 recovered cases are reported, which is 53.8% of total diagnosed confirmed cases. The percentage of recovery is improving in India and the exponential rise is confirmed by the bets fit curve, with higher activation term in exponential fit, as compared to total confirmed cases and death cases. This indicates that recovery in India is improving at a faster pace. However the fitted exponential fit is not able to simulate the slope in recent past and overestimated values are observed.

Daily Recovery: Daily recovery is also calculated and plotted against time. Again in daily values some discrepancies and higher values are reported on specific dates. For example, on 30.05.2020, 11264 recoveries are reported. Similarly, on 16.06.2020, 10215 and on 19.06.2020, 10386 recoveries are reported. Although, these numbers can be seen as sudden peaks in the curve, but the data says so. Normal distribution is fitted for this curve also, despite the fact that no turnaround should come in case of recovery, for better control of Pandemic.

Unfortunately, the variation does not have a sustained rising trend for a longer duration. It is showing a turnaround on 27.06.2020 with peak cases as 7850. Total recovered cases are simulated from the normal distribution data and this has a better fit as compared to exponential variation. By end of June, 2.77 Lakh recoveries are calculated.

Conclusion: Recovered cases are analysed in this post and it is showing a faster activation term in exponential variation, as compared to confirmed cases and death cases. This indicates that recoveries in India is going to increase at a faster pace than confirmed cases and death cases. Hope that India recovers from the Pandemic faster.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Analysis of Deceased in India till 19.06.2020

Analysis of Deceased in India till 19.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: On 17.06.2020, the number of death cases due to Pandemic in India crossed the dubious 10000 numbers. In recent past the variation in number of death has been very fast and the recent adjustments on upper side for the number of deaths also has a negative impact on the entire problem. The analysis of entire death cases on 19.06.2020 is 12573, at the rate of around 330 cases, daily. In this post, analysis of deceased cases is carried out.

Total deaths: The total number of deaths, due to Pandemic is plotted against time in days. The 100^th death is reported on 09.04.2020, 500^th on 19.04.2020, 1000 on 29.04.2020 and 5000 on 31.05.2020. This indicated that in the month of April 2020, around 1000 deaths are reported, while in the month of May 2020, around 4000 deaths are reported. This is a 4-fold rise in one month. Recording 10000 deaths by 17.05.2020, added 6000 deaths in just a span of 17 days. The rate is really moving at a very fast pace.

To understand the behaviour, an exponential curve is fitted to total number of deaths and Chi-square optimization is applied. The curve with minimum error is plotted and extrapolation, indicates a very grave situation, having 15000 cases by 22.06.2020, 20000 cases by 28.06.2020 and 23000 cases by 30.06.2020. The nature of curve is really disturbing.

Daily Cases: The variation of daily confirmed cases is also plotted to get the nature of curve. The rising trend of the curve is obvious. There are discrepancy in reporting also, which makes certain value of the curve irrelevant. For example, Zero value of death is reported on 01.06.2020 and on 17.06.2020, an adjustment for 2003 deaths are added suddenly, which make the curve very much difficult to model. However, attempt is made to fit a normal distribution and apply Chi-square minimization algorithm to understand the behaviour. It says that number of cases may start declining on 09.07.2020 with peak of 437, which is exceeded in reports several times.

 

From the minimized error curve of Chi-square, cumulative total number of deaths are calculated and the same is plotted below for extrapolation purpose and understanding its comparison with the actual value of total confirmed cases. This seems to be a realistic variation and relatively lower number of deaths are calculated with this simulation of daily confirmed cases on a particular date.

 

Conclusion: Number of Deaths due to Pandemic is rising at a very high pace in recent past. The reduction in number of deaths may be expected after 09.07.2020, only. In fact the exponential variation has very high value as compared to the same calculated for the confirmed cases. By month end around 16000 death cases are calculated. An unfortunate event triggered me to understand the nature of death pattern for Pandemic. The situation is grim. I lost one of my dear friends on 15.06.2020, due to Pandemic and I remember my dear friend again and again, while posting this. May his soul rest in peace.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Analysis of UK, Spain, Italy, Peru, Iran, Germany on 15.06.2020

Analysis of UK, Spain, Italy, Peru, Iran, Germany on 15.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: In previous post, 4 top contributing countries of confirmed cases were analysed using chi-square optimization of daily confirmed cases for the prediction of peak daily confirmed cases and probable turnaround. Other 6 countries of the first 10 contributors are analysed in this post for similar parameters.

 

Analysis: The confirmed cases in top 10 contributing countries on 15.06.2020 are tabulated below.

 

Country	Confirmed cases
USA	2094069
Russia	528964
Brazil	867624
India	332424
UK	295889
Spain	244109
Italy	236989
Peru	236989
Iran	187427
Germany	186461

 

First 4 countries are already analysed in previous post. This post analyses last 6 countries, only. For each country normal distribution curve is fitted to the daily confirmed cases and chi-square optimization is applied to get the peak amplitude and the date of turnaround. The optimized curve for each country is plotted below.

From the plots, it is clear that although these countries are contributing higher number of confirmed cases, but turnaround is achieved in most of the countries and daily confirmed cases are very less in these countries. Curve for Iran is peculiar, as it is showing a trend of second wave of Pandemic. The cases have reduced in between and again started picking up. Hope that Iran gets the lowering of cases in due course of time. For other countries, despite higher contributors, turnaround is already achieved and daily confirmed cases are on much lower side. The results are tabulated for all 10 countries.

Country	Peak cases	Turnaround
USA	33485	05-May-20
Russia	11251	22-May-20
Brazil	29282	21-Jun-20
India	13529	04-Jul-20
UK	5566	28-Apr-20
Spain	5349	08-Apr-20
Italy	4518	07-Apr-20
Peru	5407	02-Jun-20
Iran	2544	10-May-20
Germany	3992	10-Apr-20

  

Conclusion: Turnaround prediction is made using chi-square optimization for top 10 contributing countries of the world. The normal distribution curve is fitted and mathematical exercise is repeated from the available data of daily confirmed cases for each country. It may be noted that it is a purely mathematical exercise and the trend analysis using normal distribution curve may be considered apt for such situations. From the table, turnaround in India is expected very late, followed by Brazil.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar