Pandemic
in Delhi: Ground Reality
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
This
post is about analysis of Pandemic in DELHI, the capital of India.
Introduction
It is publicised that Delhi
has been under fourth wave of Pandemic and scarcity of medicine, oxygen
cylinder, hospital beds and infrastructure has been addressed with much
publicity by various agencies. This post of the blog analyses the situation in
Delhi with a quick look at various factors, relevant for understanding the
spread.
Representing Fact
Delhi is witnessing fourth
wave, each wave having higher number of daily peak confirmed cases. However,
the data available on internet has the following variation of cumulative
confirmed and recovered cases, over the entire time domain. Both the curves are
showing same nature and recovery is closely following the confirmation of
cases. It clearly indicates that in Delhi, intellectuals may look at the graphs
and then comment positively to boost morale and reduce panic amongst masses.
Further data of cumulative
number of deceased, also followed almost similar trend as cumulative confirmed
cases, but the magnitude is many order less. However, attempts should be made
to reduce this number, by any means. The cumulative number of testing is shown
on right axis and is found to be independent of number of confirmed cases. The
calculation of positive rate is shown under calculated outcome.
Calculation Outcome
The number of deceased per
unit confirmed cases on daily basis is calculated and plotted against time. The
value has attained 3.8% in June 2020, but after that it is decreasing
continuously. Current value of percentage deceased in Delhi is of the order of
1.40%. Another data is positivity rate. It is expressed as percentage for daily
confirmed cases per unit testing. The positivity rate reached a value of 16.5%
and is reducing thereafter. The minimum value of 4.50% is attained in first
week of April 2021. The current value of positivity percentage is around 6.98%.
The daily confirmed cases are
extracted from the cumulative confirmed cases for Delhi and 4 waves are clearly
visible. First wave has a peak of 3780 by End June 2020. The second wave in
mid-September 2020 has a peak of 4470. The recovery of second wave was
incomplete and third wave appeared in Delhi. It has third peak of 8590 by
Mid-November 2020. However, the current 4th wave has a very high
peak of 28000 daily confirmed cases in April 2021. Hope that recovery will
follow.
The doubling period has
reflection of all the waves. The highest value of doubling period was 167 Days
in the first week of April 2021. However after that control was poor. Doubling period
has reduced to 142 days as of now.
The growth rate of total
confirmed cases also represented all the waves adequately. It is clear that
calculation on weekly basis, resulted in a low value for quite some time from November
2020 to February 2021. However, growth rate rose to above 3% in April 2021. Currently
it is declining.
Conclusion
Delhi is capital of India and
is given more attention than any other state or part of the country. The daily
confirmed cases in Delhi was maintaining a low profile since November 2020 but
the condition worsened in the first week of April 2021, suddenly. One peculiar
and satisfying feature is closely following daily confirmed cases and recovery.
It is the difference of both, only, which is responsible for scarcity in Delhi.
However, the, Doubling period is rising and growth rate, although higher is
also showing a declining trend. Hope that the daily confirmed cases attains
lower values faster in Delhi.
Do read and share with all
interested. Take care, be safe, be vigilant, be healthy. Regards.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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