Number
of Testing, Vaccination and Deaths: Vital Demographic and Statistical Input
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
During a healthy discussion in one of the WhatsApp groups, my name and posts were referred again and again. This encouraged me to continue my analysis further. Hope that readers help me in improving myself.
Do read my book “Pandemic
Survivor Diary”, available on AMAZON Kindle.
Introduction
One of the avid readers of my
post, Shri S.A. Joshi, a dedicated and workaholic scientist once
suggested me to look into the number of deaths, when this pandemic was not
there. Whether any rise in deaths before advent of COVID-19 with data of
current situation can be correlated. It was an eye-opener and number of deaths,
due to Pandemic is found to be lower than what was coming earlier. My friend
Priyamvad has a positive YouTube post, which all must see to get positive
energy. On further scrutiny, as post-mortem of death due to COVID is not
conducted, many deaths are assigned to be pandemic-deaths, including, murders,
gang-wars, dowry-deaths, rivalries, and so on. The moral and ethical fibre of
our society has withered in acquiring personal properties and India, which
boasts of its rich heritage has failed miserably to act in humanitarian way to
combat the Pandemic. Nevertheless, in this post, some vital statistics are
looked into.
India in General
India has a population of
around 138 Crores, written as 1380000000. Considering the area of India, the
population density is around 450. The high population density is affecting
the faster spread of this pandemic and social distancing has been a major
concern due to this reason, in India. Cardiovascular
death rate around 282 and around more than 10 % population has diabetes. The
percentage of smokers in India is also above 20 %. This amounts to high
co-morbidity issues too. The life expectancy in India is around 70 years
and around 6% population is above 65 years of age. People above 70 years is
around 3.5%. Poverty is another factor, which gives poor affordability to people.
Extremely poor population in India is around 21%.
Overall, the spread of
Pandemic in India is due to bigger population and more than that a very high
population density. Extreme poverty is also an issue to consider. Comorbidity
factor is also high. Acquired co-morbidity is also high, due to smoking and
drinking. The long queues at wine-shops, clearly indicate the susceptibility of
Indians to acquire co-morbidity symptoms faster. The life expectancy
concerns and percentage population above average life expectancy is also one of
the factors to be considered, while situation in India is reviewed. So,
overall India has seemed to have touched the peak of daily confirmed cases, but
extreme situations still prevails.
Confirmed Cases
Daily and cumulative confirmed
cases are plotted on same graph with different scales. Primary axis is for the
cumulative confirmed cases (Shown in blue on left). The value is fast trying to
reach a value of 2.5 Crores, in a monotonically rising way. The daily confirmed
cases are shown on right side secondary axis (Brown) and it has a reduction in
value. The purpose of this article is not on confirmed cases, but to understand
the other aspects in the country related to Pandemic.
Number of Testing
Number of testing is
considered to be influencing the daily confirmed cases. Higher number of
testing is resulting in higher number of confirmed cases. This is observed in
many cases. To assess the situation correctly, first daily and cumulative testing
are considered. It is clear that daily testing is oscillating and probably the
weekly variation in confirmed cases is a function of weekly variation in number
of testing, too. The daily testing is oscillating and currently it is above
15 lakhs per day. The cumulative number of testing is touching 32 crores.
One peculiar feature to be
observed is that daily number of testing has dipped during January-February
2021, as depicted by the daily testing curve. A doubt is obvious that it was
intentional to get less number of cases in those periods. The cumulative
confirmed cases and cumulative testing is plotted on same graph. It is clear
that there is variation in slope of both the curves. However, rather than
commenting on this, it is better to look at the positivity rate, which is
expressed in percentage.
Positivity rate is defined in
percentage as daily confirmed cases per unit daily testing, expressed in
percentage. This is plotted and during the so called end
of second wave, the value has gone to as low as 1.78%. However, it is now
rising and currently the positivity rate is exceeding 20%. It indirectly says
that if 100 persons are tested, 20 will be positive or it is 1 in 5. In other
words, currently 5 persons are to be tested to get a positive person. If it
drops to 2%, to get 1 positive person 50 people will be tested. So, a lower
value of positivity rate is desired, at the earliest.
The main criticism of the data
of number of testing is people are not getting themselves tested for fear of
quarantine and isolation. In addition to this, for marriages and family
gatherings and religious functions, one person with symptom gets himself tested
and others follow the medicine, prescribed to the affected person. So, in a
herd of 100-200 people, only 2-3 are tested, despite others are also infected. The
actual number of cases are said to be higher than reported numbers. Another
aspect is now this testing has become mandatory for any travel and surgery. These
people have no symptoms and they get the test done to just get a negative
certificate. This gives a false reduction in positivity rate. This leads
to reduction in accuracy of number of testing data.
Vaccination
Daily and cumulative
vaccination is also plotted on a graph to understand the behaviour in India.
Daily vaccination started in January 2021 with around 2 lakh on 15 January
2021. It quickly rose to 10 Lakh on 21 January 2021. It scored 30 Lakh on 15 March
2021 and 34 Lakh on 22 March 2021. After that it declined and now it is at
around 21 lakh stage on 13.05.2021. One side, a rapid vaccination drive is
desired and other side this poor progress is a concern. The cumulative
vaccination has reached to a value of around 17.6 Crores, which is around 12.75%
of our total population. This is one-eighths value in around 4 months. At this
pace, it will take 8x period leading to 32 month, equivalent to around 3 years.
This data seems to be a concern. The reluctance of public for vaccination, negative
propaganda, administrative failure, centre verses state deadlocks, etc are
reasons, but now India should unitedly try to consume all the vaccine
available at the fastest pace to achieve the needed target of 100% vaccination.
It may be noted that two dozes of vaccines are to be taken and this data is for
total number of vaccination. Two dozes are administered to only around 1% population
of India
Deaths
Pandemic related deaths are
also concocted and many deaths, which are from other reasons are also included
in the data, due to various reasons like malicious intensions, avoiding
post-mortem, etc. Cases of dowry deaths, gang-war mortalities, illegal activities,
personal grudges etc are culminating into death and they are also intentionally
included in the death toll. However, the daily deceased cases are a good major
of control of pandemic. Even if data on daily testing and daily confirmed cases
are concocted, the daily deceased figures cannot be false. If daily deaths are
rising, it is clear that daily confirmed cases are also rising. Hiding a
death is more difficult. To consider this, daily confirmed cases and daily
death are plotted on same graph at different scale. Both plots have similar
nature. However, in last 15 days, the number of death as percentage of reported
confirmed cases is rising. This clearly indicates that confirmed cases are
not correctly reflected or more deaths are taking place or getting reported. Whatever
may be the reason, the data floating on internet has to be believed.
Conclusion
This has become a long post,
but many peripheral aspects are covered in this post. The demographic condition
in India is reviewed in light of current wave of Pandemic, excluding the
healthcare facilitates, medical emergencies, chaos for management of bed,
oxygen and medicine, etc. Number of testing conducted is correlated with number
of confirmed cases and positivity rate is plotted for better understanding of
the situation. The status of vaccination is also explored and number of
deceased is also analysed. Overall, India is bouncing back correctly, but
rather than democracy, where every head counts, it is mandatory to have
dictatorship to make only relevant heads count. Hope that this post will
have the needed readership.
Do
read and share. Keep a positive mind in negative body. Take care and be safe.
Regards,
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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