India below 1 Lakh

India below 1 Lakh

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Thank you readers for the giving me unconditional support through viewing my analysis. Please not it is a purely mathematical exercise, by converting a discrete and unconnected data using continuous distribution, for prediction as well as assessment.

 

Introduction

It has been my pleasure to carry out the optimization study on daily confirmed cases and fit a normal distribution curve with optimized mean, standard deviation and peak. The prediction was made on 09.05.2021 (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-under-control-in-india.html ), to predict a peak daily confirmed cases of second wave as around 4 Lakh. Although I was expecting a decline to a level of 60000 by the end of the current week, but the reduction was not that fast. Additionally, the number of deceased has shown an abnormal trend in last two days, shooting up at a very fast pace. These two aspects will be discussed in this post.

 

Daily confirmed cases

Daily confirmed cases are monitored at regular interval after 09.05.2021, to confirm deviation from prediction. The review dates of subsequent posts were 14.05.2021, 29.05.2021 and 05.06.2021. The link to those posts are given below.

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/salient-parameters-one-week-after.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/covid-under-control-in-india-with-rider.html

The same is repeated on 12.06.2021, again. The daily confirmed cases followed the falling limb of normal distribution, correctly. Although falling trend continued in last week till Tuesday (08.06.2021), after which it stagnated at around 92000 daily confirmed cases. One of the most satisfying thing is that despite unlocking various facilities, markets and offices, the weekly rise on Thursday is controlled. This shows that India has control over the weekly rise in daily confirmed cases. However, the cases failed to drop and stagnated. If it would have followed the falling trend, the case would have been less than 60000 by now (12.06.2021).

 

 

The cumulative confirmed cases, were also monitored regularly, which was showing a gap from the prediction. The most appealing part of the cumulative confirmed cases is that, the actual values are less than prediction and India is witnessing a faster control than expected by prediction. The same trend must continue.

 

 

 

Number of Deceased

The data on number of deceased has been a major concern for India. Despite fall in daily confirmed cases, the daily number of deceased is not falling at same rate. Earlier it was following the same trend as that for the daily confirmed cases, but after attainment of peak, the fall in daily number of deceased stopped. The number of deceased was maintaining a value of 1% of the daily confirmed cases, but it is rising now. The reporting of 6148 deaths two days back has been a major concern and it may be an accumulated figure of earlier 2-3 days, which were inadvertently left in accounting. However, after this also the cases clocked a value of 3403, which is higher than earlier values of around 2200 daily, for period prior to  10.06.2021. It is sure that fatality of second wave is much higher and the same is still maintained.

 

 

 

The number of deceased as percentage of daily confirmed cases was showing a quadratic rise and it was also modelled as a quadratic equation. However, for the last two days the values were much higher than prediction by the derived formula. The uncertainty prevails and the control on daily number of deceased is not available. On the date of adjustment the percentage touched 6.54%, while yesterday it was 3.71%. Both the values are much higher than prediction.

 

 

 

Conclusion

Daily number of confirmed cases are declining as per normal distribution curve. The traditional weekly rise in values on Thursdays is skipped in last week. However, rate of decline in cases have slowed down. Hope that unlocking is not holding daily confirmed cases, up. The fatalities are on the rise and compared to earlier situation, when there were scarcity of drugs, beds, and oxygen, now situation is much better. Despite this rise of number of deceased is a matter of concern. People are fed up now and so is CORONA, as attention of general masses is shifting to other dimensions. Daily deceased must decline to less than 500 at the fastest possible pace, to offset the fear. I hope that by the end of next week say by 20.06.2021, number of deceased will drop to 400 cases daily and daily confirmed cases will come below 40000. I pray that unlocking under people’s surveillance and COVID appropriate behavior may get us out of the current wave, fast.

Stay safe in unlocked India.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar