Weekly Trend of Growth Factor in India for Pandemic

Weekly Trend of Growth Factor in India for Pandemic

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Tuesday --> Low: Thursday --> High 

 

Introduction: India is witnessing a very bad of Pandemic and the confirmed cases are rising at a very fast pace in the country. By analysing the growth factor of daily confirmed cases, an attempt is made in this post to understand the weekly trend of rise. It is surprising to find that the lowest growth factor is recorded on Tuesday, while the highest growth factor is recorded on Thursday for the major contributing states of India.

Trend in India: The growth factor of daily confirmed cases for India for the month of June 2020 is plotted. Crest and trough of the plot is monitored for any trend.

 

It is clear that a high growth factor of 1.17 is recorded on 18.06.2020 (Thursday). Another peak is observed on 12.06.2020 (Friday) as 1.10. Yet another peak is observed on 03.06.2020 (Wednesday), as 1.09. Similarly, the lower value of 0.93 is observed on 16.06.2020 (Tuesday). Another lower value is seen on 02.06.2020 (Tuesday). This type of trend analysis led to a hypothesis that growth factor is generally lowest on Tuesday, while it is the highest on Thursday. This hypothesis is observed for the 4 major contributing states of India.

States of India: Four major contributing states of India, namely Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat are considered. The growth factor for daily confirmed cases are calculated for each for the month of June 2020. A stacked line-plot is generated. In the stack plot, for any date on x-axis, the curves are added to the previous curve, as per available value. In the plot, the curve for Maharashtra (the lower most) is the actual growth factor curve for the state. The curve depicted by Tamil Nadu is basically sum of growth factors of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. This continues and the curve shown against Gujarat (top) is cumulative sum of growth factors of all 4 states.

 

 

All the peaks of the cumulative curve (top) is lying on Thursday namely 04.06.2020, 11.06.2020 and 18.06.2020. This clearly indicates that Thursdays are showing the highest rise in confirmed cases, as compared to any other date. When troughs are accounted, they all fall on Tuesdays, namely 02.06.2020, 09.06.2020 and 16.06.2020. This may be a coincidence for the month of June 2020 and for the data available, but definitely, a trend is emerging for the rise in confirmed cases in the countries and its states.

Conclusion: Growth factor is rise in daily confirmed case over previous day. It is independent of total number of confirmed cases and is a rationalized parameter. It is observed that there is always the highest cumulative growth factor, recorded on Thursdays of the weeks. Additionally, the growth factors have the lowest value on every Tuesdays of the weeks. This is definitely a better parameter for understanding the behavior of the Pandemic in the country and its state.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar