COVID under Control in India with Rider of Number of Deceased

 

COVID under Control in India with Rider of Number of Deceased

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

I am thankful to my readers and viewers for their valuable opinions and more than 350 views on previous post entitled  “No Third Wave in India”.

 

Introduction

The prediction made on 09.05.2021, almost one month back about the possibility of a turnaround in daily confirmed cases on 07.05.2021 was well received by my readers (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-under-control-in-india.html ). The predictions were based on optimization of a normal distribution across data of daily confirmed cases.  The current post is generated to take stock of the deviation from predicted results. Additionally, the number of deceased is a major concern and the numbers are not reducing in proportion to reduction in daily daily confirmed cases.

 

Confirmed Cases

 A recap of prediction of prediction was made after one week (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/salient-parameters-one-week-after.html ). The prediction made on 09.05.2021 is plotted against daily number of confirmed cases, till 05.06.2021. The declining limb of the falling normal distribution is shown by the actual daily confirmed cases. It is really satisfying to find that the prediction is valid for over a month. The superimposed curve is shown below.

 

 

Parallel to this, if cumulative daily confirmed cases are calculated from the optimized normal distribution curve. This cumulative value is also plotted against actual cumulative confirmed cases. The actual cases are found lower than prediction and the difference between actual and prediction is continuously rising. This indicates that the actual cases are much lower and this trend must continue till June end of 2021 for better control of pandemic in India. This is really encouraging to see that the turnaround and declining number of cases are well within control.

 

 

 

Analysis of Deceased

If daily number of deceased are plotted along with daily confirmed cases, close matching of both was observed till the turnaround. When confirmed cases were rising number of deceased were also rising and vice-versa. However, after turnaround, daily confirmed cases declined but corresponding decline in number of deceased were not observed. It was pointed out in a previous post by end of May 2021 (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html). The same is extended for 06.06.2021.

 

 

The daily number of deceased stagnated at around 3000 cases and it is not declining at faster pace. This leads to gradual rise in percentage positivity rate of the country. As positivity rate is continuously rising, the same is modelled as a quadratic equation in the referred post. The same equation is valid and currently the positivity rate is around 2.55%.  

 

 

Conclusion

The daily confirmed cases are following the declining trend and we have to keep the finger crossed to see proper matching of actual cases with the prediction. So long as no surprises are visible, due to opening up of lockdown, India can be said to have controlled the Pandemic. However, the number of daily deceased cases is a matter of concern. The continuous rise in positivity rate of deceases cases as percentage of daily confirmed cases is really following a disturbing trend. The daily number of deceased has to drop. The actual situation is mortality of infected persons within one month of their long hospitalizations. This trend must be reversed or stopped. The current status of slowly unlocking the country must not result in any rise in daily confirmed cases. With this hope I reiterate that there will not be any third wave in India, if COVID appropriate behaviour is followed. My readers have expressed concern about a possible third wave in Sept-Oct 2021 due to (i) festival season (ii) postponement of many marriages to that period (iii) reduction in in-built immunity due to recovery from Pandemic, after 6 months. Let’s us hope for the best.

 

Stay safe, stay healthy, follow social distancing, and remain connected through social media. All the best.

Regards,

Dr Himanshu Shekhar