Prediction and Analysis of Delhi on 09.06.2020
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction: Delhi is one of the severely hit metros of India and it has been reviewed in many previous posts. To take stock of the situation, this review and prediction is made on 09.06.2020, using Chi-square optimization tool on the data available till 08.06.2020. The current status of Delhi has 29943 confirmed cases, 11357 recovered cases and 874 deaths. The total number of active cases are 17712 (59.15%) and last daily addition was 1007. The available data is analyzed from various angles and prediction using optimization tool is also attempted.
Analysis: The average growth factor of daily confirmed cases calculated and plotted. It is observed to be oscillating around 1 and last 2-3 days, it has value less than 1. However, for a period from 02.05.2020 to 08.06.2020, it is 1.0768, slightly more than 1. So, potential for growth exists, but values are manageable.
From the growth factor, daily growth rate is calculated and it is found to be negative for last 2-3 days, which is reflected correctly in the less than 1 growth factor also. The average growth rate from 02.05.2020 to 08.06.2020 is 7.68%.
Doubling
period is also calculated using data of total confirmed cases and the
variation of doubling period indicates a value of around 12-13 days.
This amounts to compound growth rate of 5.5% to 6% at 08.06.2020. The
compound growth rate for 7 days period is also calculated and
superimposed in the plot.
Prediction:
For prediction of total confirmed cases in future, current confirmed
cases from 01.03.2020 to 08.06.2020 is analyzed, using exponential
distribution and Chi-square minimization for per-exponential and
activation term is applied to get the trend. The plot is given below
for the actual and optimized exponential variation.
After optimization, Prediction is made for future and the calculated values for Delhi after Chi-square optimization is given below.
Conclusion: If no control is exercised at Delhi, 1.0 Lakh total confirmed cases are expected by 01.07.2020. However, last 2-3 days, growth factor is less than 1 and growth rate is negative. The doubling period of 12-13 days has to be improved further to 15-16 days for better control. After Chi-square optimization, by 30.07.2020, 5.0 lakh cases are predicted.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
There is another concept also. Till date in India testing facility is not adequate. We have conducted 4000000 tests and out of this 2.5 lacs confirmed cases where found if we assume that on that same day if 130 crore population is tested the result it will be at least 4 crore. We are getting gradual increase and we are thinking to get a peak value is not possible in India. It is due to slow testing, we are getting results of 10,000. If you increase testing to 2 lakh, you will get daily cases of 19000.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Thanks for your comments. You are totally correct in stating the dependence of confirmed cases on number of tests. It is analysis of available data, only. Hidden and unknown factors, decide the real and actual situation.
DeleteI have to submit 2 things - first is 12.6% rise is not there and second is 5.5Lakh by July end is also, an exaggeration.