India on
Path of Recovery from Second Wave and an Improbable Third Wave
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Thank
you readers for the giving me unconditional support through viewing my
analysis. Please note it is a purely mathematical exercise, by converting a
discrete and unconnected data using continuous distribution, for prediction as
well as assessment.
Introduction
It has been my pleasure to
carry out the optimization study on daily confirmed cases and fit a normal
distribution curve with optimized mean, standard deviation and peak. The
prediction was made on 09.05.2021 (https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-under-control-in-india.html
), to predict a peak daily confirmed cases of second wave as around 4 Lakh. There
are three aspects of concern – daily confirmed cases, which must decline below
1000 for entire India, daily deceased number, which must come down below 50 for
the entire India and the possibility of third wave. This post discusses all the
three aspects.
Third Wave Prediction
I have made an attempt to
predict advent of third wave using damped vibration equation with varying
amplitude and varying frequency. This was posted on 30.05.2021 and it was one
the most viewed post. Thanks to all the readers.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/prediction-of-third-wave-in-india.html
An attempt is made to again
carryout calculation for the prediction of a third wave using data up to 25.06.2021.
Correction to the amplitude and frequency is applied and prediction is made. The amplitude is assumed to be increasing by a
factor of 4 and the time duration is found to be reducing by a factor of 2.7.
|
Wave |
Amplitude |
Duration |
End
date |
|
1 |
100000 |
320 |
05-03-2021 |
|
2 |
400000 |
119 |
01-07-2021 |
|
3 |
1600000 |
44 |
14-08-2021 |
|
4 |
6400000 |
16 |
30-08-2021 |
Third wave, even if it is
coming, is mathematically found to be more severe in terms of daily confirmed
cases (Amplitude). However the duration will be very small for this. The
amplitude is found to be too high and the duration is also very small with peak
being attained on 24 July 2021. This is mathematical prediction, which seems
infeasible.
If a third wave similar in
nature to second wave in terms of amplitude and frequency is expected, then the
variation has different connotations. Around 4 lakh daily confirmed cases, and
cycle time of around 120 days gives a curve matching to the second wave. The
same is extrapolated to give a peak on 07.09.2021 and third wave is likely to
end by 01.11.2021.
This perception is also likely
to be infeasible, as the number of infected and vaccinated people has risen to
such a large extent that spread of infection will not be effective, enough to
realize a third wave. The only concern remains the slow decline of daily
confirmed cases, which must be curtailed and controlled by the participation of
people. The second wave should quickly attain a daily confirmed cases of less
than 1000 cases. The faster, it is attained the better it will be. The daily
confirmed cases and daily deceased are also reviewed.
Daily confirmed cases
Daily confirmed cases are
monitored at regular interval after 09.05.2021, to confirm deviation from
prediction. The review dates of subsequent posts were 14.04.2021, 29.05.2021, 05.06.2021
and 12.06.2021. The link to those posts are given below.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/salient-parameters-one-week-after.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/covid-under-control-in-india-with-rider.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/india-below-1-lakh.html
The daily confirmed cases were
following the predicted curve till, last week and the fall of curve was
represented correctly by the optimized normal distribution curve. However, in
recent past the daily confirmed cases showed a slower pace than expected and
the reduction in decline rate is a concern. The daily confirmed cases are 51667
on 25.06.2021. However, daily and cumulative confirmed cases have followed the
prediction for the last two months, correctly. The daily confirmed cases is exceeding
prediction now.
Number of Deceased
The number of deceased was
found to be following the daily confirmed cases. It was clear that around 1% of
daily confirmed cases was exhibited as daily deceased. However, this ratio was
disturbed after peak of second wave on 07 May 2021. The number of daily
deceased had not declined at same rate as daily confirmed cases were declining,
resulting in rise in percentage deceased.
For finding a relation,
between trends of percentage deceased, an equation is developed on 29.05.2021
and it was followed for next 10 days, only.
The situation is reviewed on 05.06.2021 and the trend was valid.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/covid-under-control-in-india-with-rider.html
However the trend of
percentage deceased as percentage of daily confirmed cases, was valid for only
10 days. Then there was a sudden peak in percentage, followed by a period of
large percentage. The deviation on 12.06.2021 was observed and mentioned in the
following post.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/india-below-1-lakh.html
The current value is lower
than the predicted values, but still the percentage deceased is currently
2.57%. This ratio must come down below 1.00%.
Conclusion
The third wave can be
controlled only by active participation of people. The trend of previous two
waves with increasing amplitude and reducing time-duration gives an infeasible
solution mathematically for the third wave. A third wave similar to second wave
is likely to sweep India, but it can become improbable with masks are used and
social distancing norms are followed. The daily confirmed cases is not falling
at a faster pace. This may be one concern, but decline is more or less steady.
The daily deceased is reducing but it should reach below 1.0% of daily
confirmed cases. Overall, I feel third wave is unlikely and control exercised
by India is very good in June 2021.
Stay safe in unlocked India.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
No comments:
Post a Comment