No
Third Wave Reiterated
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Thank
you readers for the giving me unconditional support through viewing my
analysis. Please note it is a purely mathematical exercise, by converting a
discrete and unconnected data using continuous distribution, for prediction as
well as assessment.
Introduction
I am regularly posting on my blog
about different forms of mathematical analysis to understand the trends in confirmed
cases, deceased and third wave. Analytical approach is presented and prediction
tools are developed for the same. I made a prediction on 09.05.2021 about the
turnaround using normal distribution curve and the same is still valid. However,
rate of fall of daily confirmed cases declined in recent past. The daily number
of deceased, which was around 1% till turnaround of second wave of 07.05.2021,
increased to around 4.0%. At present also it is above 1.5%. The possibility of
third wave is also predicted using damped vibration equation with different
logic. This post is to take stock of daily confirmed cases and daily deceased
cases. The main emphasis is negating possibilities of third wave through
various arguments.
No Third Wave
Third wave is hyped by all
corners, but I am still not able to understand the origin of this innovative
concept, which gripped the nation. We as Indians have to work collectively and
think as a community to fight against this pandemic. We are doing it and the
third wave is going to be a myth, in light of strict adherence of
COVID-Appropriate Behaviour by Indian citizens.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/prediction-of-third-wave-in-india.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/india-on-path-of-recovery-from-second.html
Two approaches for predicting
third wave was presented - (i) Amplitude multiplied by 4 and duration reducing
by a factor of 2.7 and (ii) Third wave of equal amplitude and duration as
second wave. The situation as on 03.07.2021, as per both the approaches is
shown below.
First approach seems to be
negating presence of third wave, if by the end of next week, daily confirmed cases
drops to less than 10000. Hopefully the slow fall of daily confirmed cases will
prevent further rise in number of cases, merging with the predicted third wave.
As per second approach, a
little longer wait is needed. But as per declining tendency, any rising trend
is again very unlikely, as per the created mathematical trend.
In addition to this
mathematical calculation, following arguments are put forth, which negates
presence of any third wave in India:
- People are following COVID-Appropriate
Behaviour meticulously.
- Awareness has penetrated to general public to
control the pandemic.
- The cases are discrete, isolated and
discontinuous and any prediction made by anybody (including me) has no basis,
except for the trend analysis.
- Mathematical trend denies existence of any rhythmic
pattern for the third wave.
- Making infections less than a critical threshold
value may prevent any subsequent rise.
- Rise in lethality leads to reduce spread for such
pandemic.
- Darwin’s Survival of the Fittest
prevailed and all with weak immunity have already suffered. The remaining lot
has higher resistance.
- A large population is already infected and
cured from the disease.
- A large number of vaccination is already administered.
- Claim
of rise in September, being a festival season may prove wrong by participation
of people, in exactly same way, as it was executed last year.
- Media
has also diverted attention away from pandemic, as people are passive and
neutral to pandemic related news.
- Addressing
third wave, as dangerous for kids is also based on wrong notion of
non-vaccinated mass and less immunity. Kids have higher immunity, as explained
in my video, some time back.
Despite all correct, pleasant and
encouraging vibes, it must be kept in mind that even 1 infected person can
spread it to 1000. So with people’s participation, only control can be
exercised. But Third wave is highly unlikely to sweep India, in near future, if
people are alert.
Daily Confirmed Cases
Daily confirmed cases were reviewed
several times in past 2 months in various posts.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/covid-under-control-in-india.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/salient-parameters-one-week-after.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/05/comparison-of-confirmed-cases-with.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/covid-under-control-in-india-with-rider.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2021/06/india-below-1-lakh.html
The situation on 03.07.2021 is
reviewed again through plots. The rate of decline of daily confirmed cases is
slower than prediction. The daily confirmed cases are still above 40000, where
it is predicted to be less than 10000, as per optimized normal distribution
curve on 09.05.2021. The cumulative confirmed cases is also moving as per
prediction. However, we have to keep our fingers crossed to conceive any rise
ion daily confirmed cases, due to any unwanted case-booster activities
including religious, social or cultural activities.
Daily Deceased Cases
The daily confirmed cases is
now less than 1000. However, as percentage of daily confirmed cases, it is
around 1.58%. This number must reduce to less than 1.0%, to indicate a better
immunity and strength of the population. Ideally, the value should be around
0.5% and daily deceased must reduce to (40000x0.5/100 =) 200. Actual value is
738, which needs 4-fold decrease, urgently for the current situation.
Conclusion
The third wave can be
controlled only by active participation of people. With current trend of daily
confirmed cases, third wave is unlikely to happen. People have to be vigilant
and active with commitment to fight any case-booster activities. The slow
decline of daily confirmed cases is a concern, but reduction is always a
welcome data. Similarly daily deceased as percentage of daily confirmed cases
must reach 0.50% to indicate reduction in fatality. I am not finding any reason
to see any third wave in India, if people of India desires so. All the best.
Stay safe in unlocked India.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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