Comparison of Confirmed cases with Prediction and an Analysis of Daily Deaths in India

Comparison of Confirmed cases with Prediction and an Analysis of Daily Deaths in India

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Unlocking in Progress: A quick look at Situation in India by May 2021 End

 

Introduction

In my post on 09.05.2021, I have fitted normal distribution curve to the daily confirmed cases in India and tried to optimize the curve to predict a turnaround and further expectation of cases. The turnaround was said to be achieved by 07.05.2021 and continuous fall in daily number of confirmed cases was contemplated. The situation is analysed by end of May 2021 for the daily confirmed cases, with respect to the prediction. One data of concern is daily number of deceased, which is not reducing in proportion to the fall in daily confirmed cases. This article takes a look at this data, too.

 

Confirmed cases

The prediction on 09.05.2021 was made for a peak of around 4 lakh daily confirmed cases, in India. The situation is found to be valid and passage proved that the expectation matched with reality. In fact, the discrete data of daily confirmed cases, matched well with the normal distribution curve, which generally depicts any random event. The data collected from internet up to May-2021 end is plotted against prediction on 09.05.2021.

 

 

The curve indicates a good match. However, daily confirmed cases declined faster than prediction as per normal distribution curve. The mathematical analysis indicated that, a better fit will be obtained, if keeping all other data same, turnaround is fixed to 04 May 2021, rather than 07 May 2021. However, the prediction made on 09 May 2021 is still valid to a fair degree. A more valid picture will emerge with the data of cumulative confirmed cases, which is matching for the prediction and actual confirmed cases.

 

 

Deceased Cases

Generally deceased cases follow the same trend, as that of the confirmed cases with some scaling. It indirectly indicates that percentage deceased on daily basis is almost a fixed fraction of the daily confirmed cases. However, after turnaround, the daily confirmed cases are reducing drastically, with very insignificant change in daily deceased. This indirectly indicates a higher fatality and higher daily death percentage.

 

 

Daily deceased as percentage of daily confirmed cases in India has been plotted since 01 April 2021. 14 April 2021 is taken as reference date. It is clear that percentage is monotonically rising. The rate of rise is faster in recent days. With respect to lapsed days from the reference date, the percentage deceased is fitted into a mathematical equation and a quadratic fit is found to be suitable. The value of daily death = 0.0006[1000+x(10+x)]. This is a disturbing trend.

 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

As predicted for the daily confirmed cases, the figure is continuously declining. The decline is found to be faster than prediction. However, the cumulative confirmed cases has almost matching trend. The validity of prediction on 09.05.2021 is thus proven till 29.05.2021 and hopefully, the trend will continue to follow the predicted normal distribution curve and cases will be under control, as predicted. However, the trend is number of daily deceased is not declining and this is a matter of concern. Although this also can be modelled as normal distribution curve, but wasting time and energy on such negative activity is avoided. Currently death percentage has reached around 2% and although trend is stagnating in last 4-5 days, but the best fit curve predicts a deceased percentage of above 3% by 12 June 2021. This is a cumulative effect of reduction in daily confirmed cases and stagnation or relatively slow declining in daily deceased cases.

 

Hope that this analysis is as per the expectations of readers. Comments are always welcome. Regards. Stay Safe, Stay Healthy, Stay at a distance, Stay connected remotely.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar