COVID under Control in India

 

COVID under Control in India

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

 

Introduction

The prediction made on 30.04.2021 about variation in daily confirmed cases needs an update, now, in light of daily confirmed cases stagnating at around 400000. It was predicted that daily confirmed cases will have a peak on 29.05.2021 and at that time daily confirmed cases will reach around 700000. The posted plot is reproduced below, as ready reference.

 

 

 

Current Situation

Although reasons are unknown, but daily confirmed cases has stagnated at around 400000 during last 7 days. This stagnation means rise of cases have slowed down and probably, India can have a faster than expected turnaround with less number of peak daily confirmed cases. With that intension in mind, the actual data up to 09.05.2021 is taken and optimization of normal distribution curve is again attempted for the second wave. The actual and predicted curves superimposed over each other is reproduced below.

 

 

It indicates that turnaround has already come and the peak value of around 400000 is expected.

 

Other Control Curves

However, Doubling period and Daily growth rate curve is to be seen in correct perspective. Nature of doubling period curve is disturbing as it is showing continuous fall in value. This indirectly says that now cases will be becoming double in less time. Current value of doubling period is 68 days. For the current cumulative number of cases in India, the value must be higher than 200 days.

 

 

 

Daily growth rate based on weekly variation has a rising trend and the value is around 2.0%. Again this is a high value for the current situation in India, in light of its value being less than 0.50 % in the beginning of April 2021. So both Doubling Period and daily growth rate are not very favourable.

 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

The stagnation of value of daily confirmed cases around 400000 in India for last 9 days has been a good sign of control. Because of this, mathematics is bound to predict that turnaround has already happened in India on 07.05.2021 (2 days before) and now cases with decline. However, doubling period and daily growth rate negates any such incident. I am hopeful that cases will reduce and am happy to get this result of already achieved turnaround in India. Of course, it must be seen in light of two aspects (i) number of testing conducted (ii) weekly low confirmed cases during weekends. We have to keep our fingers crossed to see that on Next Thursday (13.05.2021), the cases are not rising.

 

Be safe, Take care, Keep positive mind in a negative body. Regards.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar