Testing, Confirmed cases and Analysis for the Indian City Pune

Testing, Confirmed cases and Analysis for the Indian City Pune

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Previous post of 7-countries with multiple waves, also attained 100 views in 1 day. Thanks to all readers. Do read and share.

 

Introduction

During second spell of COVID-19 in India, Pune figured amongst the top 10 contributing cities, but slowly some control is visible and now the situation seems to be improving rapidly. Pune has been pensioner’s paradise and is called the pious city. However, the rapid spread of COVID-19 has taken toll over the basic socio-economic fiber and morale of the city. In line with previous posts, where, India, Maharashtra and 7 other countries of the world, where multiple waves of COVID-19 are seen, are analysed, this article concentrates on the Indian City called Pune, in the first week of May 2021. Obviously data belongs to that from end April 2021 with 1-2 days overlap in May 2021.

 

Current Status

Pune has many testing centres and daily reported confirmed cases are plotted on same scale. It is clear that number of confirmed cases increases or decreases depending on nature of number of testing. So, the myth that increase in number of testing increases daily number of confirmed cases, is true for Pune. Since number of testing is not constant, the daily number of confirmed cases could not be commented upon, well.

 

However, to have a better understanding, the percentage positivity can be calculated. It is percentage confirmed cases per 100 testing. Although data is quite oscillating, but the percentage went down below 10% in the first week of January 2021. However, it rose monotonically to above 30% in the first week of April 2021. Currently the value is around 20%.

 

 

One more aspect, which plays a major role in understanding the status of COVID-19 control in any geographical region is daily recovery. It helps in calculation of current active cases for assessing load on infrastructure. Surprisingly, Pune has almost similar trend of recovery as that for the confirmed cases. Rise in confirmed cases matched well with the rise in recovery rate to display the health of city, in terms of COVID-19. This is a positive sign.

 

However, a negative issue exists with number of deceased. Although confirmed cases are declining now, the number of deceased is rising continuously. This must be controlled, in real sense, rise in deceased number reduces active cases, but poor healthcare system of the city is reflected by this. However, immunity, age-group, infection level, detection area, zone of hospital, etc are also factors contributing to the number of daily deceased.

 

 

 Calculated Parameters

Doubling period of total confirmed cases in Pune, displayed continuous improvement. It reached to 191 days by the end of March 2021. After this the control somehow got lost and rapid decline in doubling period was observed. Doubling period is the duration in which total confirmed cases double. Currently the doubling period for Pune is 52 days. The doubling period curve for Pune must go up to maintain effective control.

  

 

Another parameter of significance is daily growth rate, which is calculated on weekly basis. The data of 7-days gap are considered for the calculation of daily growth rate. Before September 2020, it was very high. However, it is controlled to a very low level later on. It went below 0.20% by 5 December 2020 and remained below 0.20 % till 20 February 2021, a duration of almost 2.5 months. However, the tendency to rise was visible and it reached to around 1.90% by 09 April 2021. Currently daily growth rate has declining tendency, which is good. The declining tendency must be maintained.

 

 

Conclusion

Pune displayed higher number of confirmed cases, whenever higher number of tests are conducted on daily basis. The recovery is surprisingly following the confirmed cases well. However, current concern should be to reduce number of deceased, which has rising tendency despite a decline in number of confirmed cases. The doubling period for Pune is reducing, which must be controlled. The reduction in daily growth rate is a good sign, indicating a better future. This a purely mathematical exercise and explanation for rise and fall of each parameters, are although known, mathematically, but not made part of this post for maintaining reader’s interest. 

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Hope that it is a good reading material for readers. Thank you very much. Do read and share. Be active, take care, be healthy and safe. Regards. 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar 

Additinal comment

Shri SA Joshi commented to have a look at the mortality rate when COVID was non existent. Data is collected from NHSRC official site of census, which is reproduced below. Annual deceased due to various reasons comes out to be above 20000. The pandemic has cross this number in Pune. The point raise by Mr Joshi is very true to have a holistic picture. I salute his interest and feel proud to have worked with him.