Analysis
of India till 05.06.2020
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction: The
rise of confirmed cases in India is touching daily count of 10000, which needs
a fresh look at the turnaround. However, the prediction made on 20.05.2020,
about India is still valid, and the analysis of the same is presented in this
post.
Current status: The
total confirmed cases on 05.06.2020 for India is reported as 226770, with
current daily confirmed case as 9851. The variation with respect to prediction
made on 20.05.2020 is plotted below.
The daily growth factor is
1.05738 and doubling period has improved to 15 days. The normal distribution
curve for estimation of turnaround require peak amplitude of at least 11000
confirmed cases per day. With this assumption, if a normal distribution curve
is fitted, turnaround is expected by 21 June 2020. By that time India is
expected to have more than 4.0 Lakh cumulative confirmed cases.
Maharashtra:
Maharashtra recorded 77793 total confirmed cases on 05.06.2020. The growth
factor from 01.05.2020 till 05.06.2020 is 1.083, while from 15.05.2020 to
05.06.2020, it is 1.0305. This indicates that growth factor for Maharashtra is
coming down. Additionally, the doubling period for confirmed cases in
Maharashtra has also improved to 16 days. Both are good sign and a quick
turnaround is expected. The earlier normal distribution curve with peak daily
confirmed cases of 3000, is retained and it expects a turnaround by 08.06.2020.
Delhi: The
daily confirmed cases at Delhi on 05.06.2020 is 2872, making it to a total
confirmed case of 25004. Doubling period, which has touched 16 days in the beginning
of the month has dropped to 12 days now. The growth factor is of the order of 1.15
for 01.05.2020 to 05.06.2020 and 1.18 for 20.05.2020 to 05.06.2020. This
indicates that Delhi has further growth potential.
The normal distribution curve
indicates a turnaround on 20.06.2020, if daily confirmed cases attains a peak
of 1500.
Conclusion: India
has slightly more than 1 growth factor but doubling period of 15 days can give
a turnaround by 20.06.2020 if daily confirmed cases peaks at 11000. For
Maharashtra both growth factor and doubling period are favorably changing and
a turnaround for a peak daily confirmed cases of 3000 is expected by
08.06.2020. Delhi has high growth factor and low doubling period. Both are not
favorable and a turnaround for peak daily confirmed case of 1500, is expected
on 20.06.2020.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
Excellent analyses and explanations about the shape of things to come in the next two weeks or so!
ReplyDeleteCongratuations Dr Himanshu Shekhar.
Thank you sir. It is nice to have encouragement from you. I hope that you have gone through my earlier analysis about different countries of the world and also about states of our country. Regards.
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