India
and its states on 14.06.2020
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction: The
second week of June was full of sudden spikes in different parts of the country
and each of the Indian states including Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and
Gujarat were reviewed and fresh norms were expected, also. In addition to this,
tampering with data, less number of testing, poor reporting, administrative indecision,
people’s plight, were also highlighted. In light of all this, analysis is
continued with whatever data is available. States of Maharashtra is analysed on
achieving 1.0 Lakh confirmed cases in a post on 13.06.2020. India is analysed on
achieving 4th place in the world in confirmed cases and crossing 3.0
lakh total confirmed cases. Delhi is regularly analysed, as rate of rise was showing
very high variations. Gujarat is analysed in one of the posts, as it crossed
20000 confirmed cases. In light of all these developments and bad news,
analysis of Tamil Nadu was pending, which is included in this post. A summary
of various parameters is presented to understand the behaviour of reported data
about the Pandemic in India during second week of June 2020. URL of relevant posts in this week for ready
reference is given below.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/india-at-3-lakh-and-maharashtra-at-1.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/maharashtra-and-gujarat-on-11062020.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/prediction-and-analysis-of-delhi-on.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/turnaround-predictions-for-india-and.html
Tamil Nadu as on 14.06.2020: Tamil
Nadu is one of the major contributors of confirmed cases but because of more
attention focused on Maharashtra (Mumbai) and Delhi, it is not considered as a
major contributors. In addition to this, the recovery percentage is very high
in Tamil Nadu and the death percentage is very low. These two factors are
always keeping this state out of focus. Nevertheless, in this post, the status of Tamil Nadu
in second week of June 2020 is analysed.
The number of daily
confirmed cases has a uniform rise during the week in Tamil Nadu. Total
confirmed cases on 14.06.2020 is 42687, out of which recovered cases are 23409
(54.83%). The death cases are 397 (0.93%). The recovery percentage is very high
as compared to national average in Tamil Nadu and death percentage is very low.
This make active cases as 18881 (44.23%), which is less than national average
of percentage active case. However, the growth factor of daily confirmed cases
over the period of time is higher than 1. Even on 14.06.2020, it is 1.00353.
The doubling period for
Tamil Nadu, which was steady at 15 days in June till 12.06.2020, dropped to 14
days in last two days. Although death percentage is lower in Tamil Nadu, but
the higher growth factor and lowering of doubling period in recent past
indicates a rising trend in number of confirmed cases in Tamil Nadu too.
Summary for India: For
the analysis of second week of Pandemic in India, the information shared in
various earlier posts is tabulated below.
Growth factor, doubling
period and growth rate is calculated as an average over the second week of June
2020. The percentage values are given as on 14.06.2020. For each parameter,
different states have performed better. In terms of growth factor, best control
is exercised by Gujarat. However, the values are slightly above 1 for all the
units. The same is reflected in the doubling period also and Gujarat has
outperformed all other states and the value is very high as compared to
India. Next in line is Maharashtra, which has doubling period, slightly higher
than national average for the second week of June 2020. Delhi and Tamil Nadu
have displayed lower value of doubling period, even lower than national
average. The similar trend is seen in growth rate also. As far as percentage
cases are concerned, on 14.06.2020, Gujarat displayed very high recovery
percentage, followed by Tamil Nadu. Maharashtra and Delhi displayed percentage
recovery lower than national average. As far as percentage of deaths on
14.06.2020 is concerned, the Tamil Nadu is showing the best results. Others are
higher than national average. Among mentioned parameters, Gujarat displayed
poor performance in this single parameter.
Conclusion: The
second week ended with a commitment to have better control over the pandemic
and overall, reduction in rate of rise of confirmed cases is to be achieved in
third week. However, the mathematical analysis is an easier way to understand
the behavior of Pandemic in India. The post is a summary of activities till
14.06.2020 in June 2020 for India. It is still doubtful, in light of the
earlier post indicating reproduction rate in India not achieving value less
than 2, that India will have quick control. Although rate of rise has slowed down,
but daily upsurges are shocking and is indicating a probable second wave, also.
Future is unknown and detection of cases are random in nature. Mathematics is only
a tool to convert those available data in the form of knowledge or information.
Regards.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/simulation-for-india-practical.html
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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