Analysis of UK, Spain, Italy, Peru, Iran, Germany on 15.06.2020

Analysis of UK, Spain, Italy, Peru, Iran, Germany on 15.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: In previous post, 4 top contributing countries of confirmed cases were analysed using chi-square optimization of daily confirmed cases for the prediction of peak daily confirmed cases and probable turnaround. Other 6 countries of the first 10 contributors are analysed in this post for similar parameters.

 

Analysis: The confirmed cases in top 10 contributing countries on 15.06.2020 are tabulated below.

 

Country	Confirmed cases
USA	2094069
Russia	528964
Brazil	867624
India	332424
UK	295889
Spain	244109
Italy	236989
Peru	236989
Iran	187427
Germany	186461

 

First 4 countries are already analysed in previous post. This post analyses last 6 countries, only. For each country normal distribution curve is fitted to the daily confirmed cases and chi-square optimization is applied to get the peak amplitude and the date of turnaround. The optimized curve for each country is plotted below.

From the plots, it is clear that although these countries are contributing higher number of confirmed cases, but turnaround is achieved in most of the countries and daily confirmed cases are very less in these countries. Curve for Iran is peculiar, as it is showing a trend of second wave of Pandemic. The cases have reduced in between and again started picking up. Hope that Iran gets the lowering of cases in due course of time. For other countries, despite higher contributors, turnaround is already achieved and daily confirmed cases are on much lower side. The results are tabulated for all 10 countries.

Country	Peak cases	Turnaround
USA	33485	05-May-20
Russia	11251	22-May-20
Brazil	29282	21-Jun-20
India	13529	04-Jul-20
UK	5566	28-Apr-20
Spain	5349	08-Apr-20
Italy	4518	07-Apr-20
Peru	5407	02-Jun-20
Iran	2544	10-May-20
Germany	3992	10-Apr-20

  

Conclusion: Turnaround prediction is made using chi-square optimization for top 10 contributing countries of the world. The normal distribution curve is fitted and mathematical exercise is repeated from the available data of daily confirmed cases for each country. It may be noted that it is a purely mathematical exercise and the trend analysis using normal distribution curve may be considered apt for such situations. From the table, turnaround in India is expected very late, followed by Brazil.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar