Analysis
for USA, Brazil and Russia on 15.06.2020
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction:
Parallel to analyzing India and its states for the confirmed cases of Pandemic
COVID-19, an attempt is made to analyse the daily confirmed cases of those countries
of the world, who have maximum number of confirmed cases. In this attempt, in
this post, those countries are taken, which have contributed more number of
confirmed cases as on 15.06.2020. As India is ranked 4th, the three
countries analysed in this post are USA, Brazil and Russia. The daily confirmed
cases and the Chi-square optimization of normal distribution curve is applied to
get the mathematical behavior of the confirmed cases in those countries.
USA:
This has 2094069 confirmed cases on 15.06.2020 and the death accounted is 115732
(5.53%). Total testing conducted exceeds 23290724. The percentage of getting a confirmed
case over number of tests is 8.68%, approximately. Daily confirmed cases are
declining at a slower rate and is oscillating with minimum value of around
20000 per day. The chi-square optimization of normal distribution curve is
plotted on daily confirmed cases. Now probably decline will continue and cases
will reduce in USA.
Russia:
Russia has 528964 total confirmed cases on 15.06.2020, out of which death cases
are 6948 (1.31%). Total testing conducted are 15161152, which gives confirmed cases
of 3.488%, approximately. Chi-square optimization is applied for Russia and
with peak daily cases of 11251, turnaround on 22.05.2020 is obtained by the
optimized normal distribution curve.
Brazil:
Brazil has 867624 total confirmed cases on 15.06.2020 and number of deaths are
43332 (5%). Number of tests conducted is not clearly available for Brazil.
Chi-square optimization of daily confirmed cases indicate that turnaround may
be expected on 21.06.2020 with peak daily confirmed cases of 29282. However,
this is with assumption of normal distribution fitment to the daily confirmed
cases.
India: The
analysis of India is also included with these top ranking countries in the
post. India has 332424 total confirmed cases on 15.06.2020 and number of deaths
are 9520 (2.86%). India has conducted 5774133 test making confirmed case
detection percentage as 5.75%. The daily confirmed cases are plotted and
Chi-square optimization for normal distribution curve is made. The turnaround
is predicted on 04.07.2020 with peak cases of 13529.
Conclusion:
USA, Russia, Brazil and India is analysed for daily confirmed cases and normal distribution
curve is fitted to the variation. Chi-square optimization is applied to the
normal distribution fit to obtain the turnaround and peak daily confirmed cases
for each. Out of the analysed countries, USA and Russia are on decline. Brazil
will attain peak by this weekend and will go for a decline. For India, the
turnaround is pushed to first week of July, at least. The Number of tests for
getting confirmed cases in India is better than USA.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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