India at 5.0 Lakh on 27.06.2020

India at 5.0 Lakh on 27.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: As described in previous posts about all the states of India, India will be achieving 5.0 Lakh after 1000 hrs on 27.06.2020 and the same became true. In addition to this each state of India contributed to this distinction in own way. The situation really require a people movement to spread awareness for control of Pandemic in India. Current post analyses confirmed cases at India, Maharashtra and Delhi, also on 27.06.2020. 

 

Breaking News: The news about spread of COVID-19 Pandemic in India is in real sense a Breaking News, as it breaks the heart, soul, courage, enthusiasm, efforts and commitment of people of India, who in a spirit of attaining the dubious distinction of attaining the crown of most populous country of the world is attaining many high numerical values in terms of COVID-19 cases. It is also mentioned now that India has 1 confirmed cases in every 13 person. On 27.06.2020, it is really heartrending to find many breaking revelations about India for the Pandemic cases.

Ø  Total number of confirmed cases in India crossed 500000 (Five Lakhs).

Ø  Daily confirmed cases in India crossed 18000.

Ø  Total confirmed cases in Maharashtra crossed 1.50 lakhs

Ø  Daily confirmed cases in Maharashtra crossed 5000.

Ø  Total confirmed cases in Delhi crossed 75000.

Ø  Total recovered cases in Tamil Nadu crossed 40000.

Ø  Total confirmed cases in Gujarat crossed 30000.

It is really difficult to analyse the confirmed cases in light of such tremendous rate of rise and after understanding the gravity of the situation.

 

Confirmed cases: Daily confirmed cases for India, Maharashtra and Delhi is just plotted to understand that there is no leveling or falling back option. No turnaround is possible in light of such great rise in each contributing factor. It seems a free defenseless population is given to COVID-19 to spread havoc. In fact such situation is ideal for the calculation of reproduction rate, discussed in one of the previous posts.

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-concept-of-r-naught-r0-for.html

Hoping against hope, daily and cumulative confirmed cases for India till 27.06.2020, when India registered 508953 total confirmed cases, is plotted. An attempt is also made to predict a turnaround, which is likely not before 31.07.2020, with peak daily confirmed cases of 22842.

For Maharashtra, cumulative confirmed cases on 27.06.2020 is 152765 and in last 24 hours, 5024 new confirmed cases are recorded. Despite this, trend is Maharashtra is always favorable from Mathematical calculation point of view and current date is always coming as date of turnaround. However, there is continuous rise in confirmed cases in Maharashtra and there is no control visible, except for the claims and counter claims about only 4500 testing conducted at Mumbai.

Delhi recorded 3460 confirmed cases in last 24 hours and has 77240 total confirmed cases as on 27.06.2020. The trend in Delhi is difficult for statistical methods to handle properly. It gives a turnaround next year July (04.07.2021) with peak daily confirmed cases as 16019. If mathematics is to be believed, it seems, later on, only Delhi will be contributing confirmed cases to India.

The mathematical model integrating contribution of all states in the prediction for India is to be developed, so that realistic estimate can be made for India, as a whole or as a conglomerate of states. Currently, India is also treated as one of the geographical entity, like any other state and calculations are made.

 

Conclusion: It is irony that Indians are now scapegoats for the scientific experiment called Pandemic. In absence of any vaccine, medicine or treatment, prevention is better than cure is to be exercised and faster it is understood by the masses, the better, it will be. Blaming, higher number of tests, poor government efforts, feigning helplessness and playing with statistical data, may on paper or in public debate, get some ground, but the fact of the matter is the Pandemic is uncontrolled in India. Unless masses take care of themselves, there is nothing that can help people, now. May good sense prevail on people at the earliest.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar