India
Crossing 2 Lakh Confirmed Cases on 03.06.2020
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction: Total number of Confirmed cases on 03.06.2020, in India is 207615.
Prediction of Cumulative confirmed cases in India crossing 2.0 Lakh is made on
20.05.2020, as per post of 21.05.2020 in this blog (URL: https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/india-crossing-1-lakh-leads-to-fresh.html).
Before this, a fresh calculation strategy was adopted for estimation of daily
confirmed cases in India using exponential variation as 150e0.05t,
where t = time in days, calculated using 15.03.2020, as 1. Cumulative number of
confirmed cases are calculated and predictions were made. The curve from the post
of 21.05.2020 is reproduced below as ready reference.
Analysis: The
data is analysed for last 15 days in terms of growth factor and doubling period,
to understand the nature of variation. The actual number of cumulative
confirmed cases against prediction made on 20.05.2020 is shown below for last
18 days.
The points for actual confirmed
cases are on higher side, but slowly it is coming nearer to the predicted
value. This indicates that the daily confirmed cases as per modelling is an
over-estimate and it is better to calculate the cumulative confirmed case as
exponential variation than assuming daily confirmed cases as exponential
varying. The growth factor is calculated from 01.05.2020 to 02.06.2020 and it
is found to be 1.056, which is slightly above 1 and further rise in daily
confirmed cases is expected. The doubling period for India is improving and it
is currently 15 days, which indicates nice control.
Prediction strategy: The
data of last 15 days is plotted separately, superimposing actual and
prediction by modelling, to assess the variation and deviation from prediction.
As cumulative confirmed cases are analysed and of direct concern, it is
attempted to now calculate the cumulative confirmed cases directly, rather than
calculating it from daily confirmed cases. The exponential variation of daily
confirmed cases is not taking place and the same may be discarded for future
analysis. So new strategy is devised, which may be valid till June 2020 end, if
no control measures are adopted. Although much variation in near future is not
visible and 3.0 Lakh cumulative confirmed cases are expected by 12.06.2020 and
4.0 Lakh by 18.06.2020. Hopefully, a turnaround will be envisaged before such
high numbers are reached.
Although it is premature,
but turnaround for different strategy is also attempted. In current way, as
daily number of confirmed cases exceeded 8000, turnaround is not likely by
18.06.2020, as calculated using normal distribution curve (option 4 of the
tabulated data in post of the blog dated 19.05.2020, URL: https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/predictionfor-india-confidence-in-data.html).
As per re-estimate, the normal distribution over daily confirmed cases is
expected to give a turnaround by 15.06.2020 with peak cases of 9000.
Conclusion: Despite
a slight above 1 growth factor, the doubling period of cumulative confirmed cases
in India has increased to 15 days. Although daily additions are on higher side,
and as per estimate, 3.0 lakh confirmed cases are expected by 12.06.2020 and
4.0 lakh by 18.06.2020, an optimistic turnaround by 15.06.2020 is calculated
using normal distribution curve for the peak daily confirmed cases of 9000.
Hope that India gets a faster turnaround and get a quick control.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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