Maharashtra and Gujarat on 11.06.2020

Maharashtra and Gujarat on 11.06.2020

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Introduction: As confirmed cases are purely a random number and there is no correlation between data of previous day with that of the next day. However, there is a continuous rise in number of confirmed cases and this time Gujarat is kept in focus, which has now more than 20000 cumulative confirmed cases and in recent past the sudden increase has resulted in development of outliers data points in both the cases. Gujarat is never analyzed in the blog. So it is analyzed. Analysis for Maharashtra is needed, as there is sudden rise in confirmed cases, on 11.06.2020.

Gujarat: On 11.06.2020, Gujarat displayed cumulative confirmed cases of 21521, total active cases as 5439 (25.27%), total recovered cases as 14735 (68.46%) and total deaths as 1347 (6.26%). The concern remains, crossing of 20000 cumulative confirmed cases on 08.06.2020. Although death percentage is slightly higher than national average but the recovered cases are very high. The concern is increase in active cases in recent past (3-4 days).

Various other parameters are also plotted. The first is growth factor of daily confirmed cases, which is ratio of confirmed cases detected on any two consecutive days. The doubling period in days, which checks the duration needed to double the cumulative confirmed cases. The third parameter is average daily growth rate in percentage, calculated for rise in cumulative confirmed cases.

The doubling period is continuously rising and the value is currently at around 26 days. This is indirectly reflected in low growth rate also. The value of growth factor is 1.013 for a period from 20.05.2020 to 10.06.2020. This is a matter of concern and it should be reduced to less than 1.

Chi-square optimization is applied for normal distribution over the daily confirmed cases and turnaround on 26.05.2020 with daily peak cases of 468 is obtained. It is a matter of concern that in last 4-5 days the daily rise in number of cases are on higher side and with slight high average growth factor compared to 1, potential rise is expected, also. However, doubling period is very much favorable and growth rate is also quite low. These daily rise are disturbing but the trend may be considered under control, if no untoward upsurge is seen.

Maharashtra: The cumulative confirmed cases in Maharashtra on 11.06.2020 are 94041, but the major concern is a rise of around 3254 cases in one day. Last 10 days the rise recorded was much lower than this figure and around 1000 extra cases are detected in a single day. Out of this, recovered cases are 44517 (47.33%), deaths are 3438 (3.65%) and active cases are 46086 (49%). Although, active cases are on higher side, if compared with Gujarat, it is in line with the national average. The average growth factor in June 2020 till 10.06.2020 is 0.9815, but the addition of data of 11.06.2020 makes it 1.0233. Despite a sudden one day rise, the average daily growth rate calculated over 7-days is less than 4% for June 2020, till 11.06.2020. The doubling period is continuously rising from 14 days on 01.06.2020 to 19 days on 11.06.2020.

Normal distribution curve is plotted for daily confirmed cases and Chi-square minimization is applied to re-confirm the turnaround date by variation of mean, standard deviation and amplitude. Despite one day upsurge of more than 50% over previous day rise in daily confirmed cases, the two parameters, namely date of turnaround and peak daily confirmed cases, are not changed much and it is expected to maintain the same values, provided no sudden further upsurge in number of confirmed cases is seen.

Conclusion: Gujarat and Maharashtra is analyzed in light of their recent upsurge in number of confirmed cases. However, in both the states, the cases are well under control and the same must continue to occur in future, too. No doubt, the other parameters like number of tests, improper reporting and other issues may crop up, bu the current situation is better in both the states with doubling period nearing 20 in Maharashtra and 26 in Gujarat.One day upsurge may not change the optimized values but the upsurge must not become a practice or daily affair.

Dr Himanshu Shekhar