India
at 3 Lakh and Maharashtra at 1 Lakh
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Thanks
to all the readers, viewers, seniors, colleagues, friends and acquaintances, for liking the posts and at least reading and commenting on the posts.
Reproduction
rate is analysed in previous post to understand the nature of Pandemic in India.
Current post is for the current situation on 13.06.2020.
Introduction: On 12.06.2020,
India became 4th country of the world in terms of the highest number
of confirmed cases. This dubious distinction needs a thorough review and rather
than claiming more number of tests, fault on part of any individual,
organization or unit, it is time to work together to fight against the
Pandemic. The current post is to assess the situation at the juncture, when
India has struck 300000 total confirmed cases and Maharashtra has crossed the
100000 confirmed cases. The date is 13.06.2020.
India: Last
7 days, India was recording less than 10000 daily confirmed cases and it was
looking like the rise in cases have stopped. Despite the fact that Maharashtra,
Delhi and Gujarat were showing sudden rise in confirmed cases, the daily
confirmed cases for India was not rising. On 13.06.2020, daily confirmed case
rise of 12068 is recorded and the total conformed cases in India exceeded
300000. The same is plotted against various predictions made in the blog from
time to time.
As per latest post, the
daily and cumulative both the cases were plotted and the same is reproduced
below.
The rise in daily confirmed
cases from 10000 to 12000 is very high. It is around 20% on daily basis. Such rise
needed proper analysis and control, at the earliest. However, other parameters,
are favourable. The doubling period has increased to 17 days, the growth factor
on an average from 01.05.2020 to 13.06.2020 is 1.05177. The compound daily growth
rate, based on doubling period is 4.16%. Except growth factor, other parameters
are under control. However, no further upsurge should be seen in the daily confirmed
cases. As mentioned in the earlier post (URL Below), the reproduction rate or
R-naught in India has never gone below 2, even during lockdown and this fact
must be accepted.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/simulation-for-india-practical.html
Maharashtra: Maharashtra
is maintaining a contribution of around one-third of total confirmed cases to India
and this remains the situation, even on 13.06.2020, when Maharashtra recorded
100000 confirmed cases, coinciding with mention of 300000 total confirmed cases
in India. Maharashtra has 101141 total
confirmed cases and for three consecutive days, the daily confirmed cases
recorded more than 3000 counts. The cumulative and daily confirmed cases are
plotted over the optimized normal distribution curve, which after Chi-square
optimization gave turnaround on 08.06.2020 with 3000 peak cases. The cumulative
confirmed case curve is matching but the upsurge in daily confirmed cases is disturbing.
The growth factor from
01.05.2020 till 13.06.2020 is calculated as 1.0749 for Maharashtra and the same
for 20.05.2020 to 13.06.2020, it is 1.0329. The doubling period is calculated
as 19 days and the daily compound growth rate based on doubling period is
3.72%. Although growth factor is slightly more than 1, but other factors are
indicating a control, provided no untoward incident is recorded, which
destabilizes the confirmed cases.
Conclusion:
Status of India and Maharashtra on 13.06.2020 is taken, when both attained
dubious status by recording 3.0 lakhs and 1.0 lakh total confirmed cases, respectively.
However, the factors are in favor for a control, but the control has to be
exercised in reality by public and it must be reflected in reality. Hope that India
fails to achieve 4.0 lakh total confirmed cases by 18.06.2020 and it goes to
beyond 30.06.2020.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
No comments:
Post a Comment