Analysis
of Recovered Cases trend for India on 20.06.2020
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction:
After deliberating confirmed cases for many previous posts, an attempt is made
in previous post to analyse the nature of death-pattern due to Pandemic in
India. URL is given below:
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/analysis-of-deceased-in-india-till.html
To get some solace from
negativity, an attempt in this post is made to analyse the recovered cases and
get some positivity, regarding spread of Pandemic in the country. Data up to
19.06.2020 is taken for analysis.
Total Recovery: The
variation of total recovered cases, on a particular date has a rising trend and
the variation can be assumed to be an exponential curve. On 19.06.2020, 204711
recovered cases are reported, which is 53.8% of total diagnosed confirmed
cases. The percentage of recovery is improving in India and the exponential
rise is confirmed by the bets fit curve, with higher activation term in
exponential fit, as compared to total confirmed cases and death cases. This
indicates that recovery in India is improving at a faster pace. However the fitted
exponential fit is not able to simulate the slope in recent past and
overestimated values are observed.
Daily Recovery:
Daily recovery is also calculated and plotted against time. Again in daily
values some discrepancies and higher values are reported on specific dates. For
example, on 30.05.2020, 11264 recoveries are reported. Similarly, on
16.06.2020, 10215 and on 19.06.2020, 10386 recoveries are reported. Although,
these numbers can be seen as sudden peaks in the curve, but the data says so.
Normal distribution is fitted for this curve also, despite the fact that no
turnaround should come in case of recovery, for better control of Pandemic.
Unfortunately, the variation
does not have a sustained rising trend for a longer duration. It is showing a
turnaround on 27.06.2020 with peak cases as 7850. Total recovered cases are
simulated from the normal distribution data and this has a better fit as
compared to exponential variation. By end of June, 2.77 Lakh recoveries are
calculated.
Conclusion: Recovered
cases are analysed in this post and it is showing a faster activation term in
exponential variation, as compared to confirmed cases and death cases. This
indicates that recoveries in India is going to increase at a faster pace than
confirmed cases and death cases. Hope that India recovers from the Pandemic
faster.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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