Analysis
of Deceased in India till 19.06.2020
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction: On
17.06.2020, the number of death cases due to Pandemic in India crossed the
dubious 10000 numbers. In recent past the variation in number of death has been
very fast and the recent adjustments on upper side for the number of deaths
also has a negative impact on the entire problem. The analysis of entire death
cases on 19.06.2020 is 12573, at the rate of around 330 cases, daily. In this
post, analysis of deceased cases is carried out.
Total deaths: The
total number of deaths, due to Pandemic is plotted against time in days. The
100th death is reported on 09.04.2020, 500th on
19.04.2020, 1000 on 29.04.2020 and 5000 on 31.05.2020. This indicated that in
the month of April 2020, around 1000 deaths are reported, while in the month of
May 2020, around 4000 deaths are reported. This is a 4-fold rise in one month. Recording
10000 deaths by 17.05.2020, added 6000 deaths in just a span of 17 days. The rate
is really moving at a very fast pace.
To understand the behaviour,
an exponential curve is fitted to total number of deaths and Chi-square
optimization is applied. The curve with minimum error is plotted and
extrapolation, indicates a very grave situation, having 15000 cases by
22.06.2020, 20000 cases by 28.06.2020 and 23000 cases by 30.06.2020. The nature
of curve is really disturbing.
Daily Cases: The
variation of daily confirmed cases is also plotted to get the nature of curve. The
rising trend of the curve is obvious. There are discrepancy in reporting also,
which makes certain value of the curve irrelevant. For example, Zero value of
death is reported on 01.06.2020 and on 17.06.2020, an adjustment for 2003
deaths are added suddenly, which make the curve very much difficult to model.
However, attempt is made to fit a normal distribution and apply Chi-square
minimization algorithm to understand the behaviour. It says that number of
cases may start declining on 09.07.2020 with peak of 437, which is exceeded in
reports several times.
From the minimized error curve
of Chi-square, cumulative total number of deaths are calculated and the same is
plotted below for extrapolation purpose and understanding its comparison with
the actual value of total confirmed cases. This seems to be a realistic
variation and relatively lower number of deaths are calculated with this
simulation of daily confirmed cases on a particular date.
Conclusion:
Number of Deaths due to Pandemic is rising at a very high pace in recent past. The
reduction in number of deaths may be expected after 09.07.2020, only. In fact
the exponential variation has very high value as compared to the same
calculated for the confirmed cases. By month end around 16000 death cases are
calculated. An unfortunate event triggered me to understand the nature of death
pattern for Pandemic. The situation is grim. I lost one of my dear friends on
15.06.2020, due to Pandemic and I remember my dear friend again and again,
while posting this. May his soul rest in peace.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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