India at 4.0L and Delhi Competing Tamil Nadu for Confirmed Cases

India at 4.0L and Delhi Competing Tamil Nadu for Confirmed Cases

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: India crossed 4.0 Lakh confirmed cases on 21.06.2020 and in last week the growth was slower, making all predictions based on exponential variation and normal distribution, incorrect. The rate is much slower than expectations and rather than thinking of such variations, now simple linear variation is attempted in the post. Additionally, on 21.06.2020, the total number of cases in Delhi became almost comparable to the total confirmed cases at Tamil Nadu. Both the incidences are very disturbing. This post analyses situation in India and Delhi.

India: Total cumulative cases in India on 21.06.2020 is reported to be 410461. The doubling period has improved to 19 days, but the growth factor is always more than 1 in complete last week. To consider the variation of total confirmed cases in India, it crossed 10K on 14 April 2020. 1.0 Lakh cases are recorded on 19.05.2020, which is around 35 days. The total confirmed cases crossed 2.0 Lakhs on 03.06.2020, taking almost 15 days to add 1.0 lakh cases. The total confirmed cases exceeded 3.0 lakhs on 13.06.2020, after 10 days. The 4.0 lakhs on 21.06.2020 means a gap of 8 days in adding 1.0 lakh new confirmed cases. At this rate, adding another lakh total confirmed cases will take less than 8 days and by month end, numbers will definitely exceed 5.0 lakh. 

As the numbers are found to be deviating from earlier predictions based on exponential variation and normal distribution, a simple linear equation is fitted to the data till 21.06.2020 and extrapolated to get the total number of confirmed cases in future. Although curve is having a slight upward tilt, but hopefully, linear variation for next 15 days may be sufficient. The prediction is extrapolated from data of 21 days of June 2020 to get the total confirmed cases up to 10 July 2020.

 

 

Delhi: The total number of confirmed cases in Delhi on 21.06.2020 is 56746, while the same in Tamil Nadu is 56845. Thus Delhi is fast catching up Tamil Nadu in this respect. The variation of Delhi and Tamil Nadu for same scale for the 21 days in June 2020 is plotted. It is clear that Delhi is having a sudden high rate of rise after 18.06.2020, before which both the curves were moving almost parallel. 

On daily basis, Delhi is contributing almost 800-1000 extra confirmed cases, as compared to Tamil Nadu. Number of deaths is also high in Delhi and despite having equivalent number of total confirmed cases, situation in Delhi is bad.

Conclusion: The variation of total confirmed cases in India is assumed to be varying linearly with time, rather than exponentially. The prediction for India using linear variation gives around 5.0 Lakh total confirmed cases by June end and around 6.0 Lakh cases by 10 July 2020. The control in Delhi is to be exercised, so that some control is possible. Total number of cases are still rising at a disturbing rates at all places and this is a matter of concern.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar