Fresh
Prediction and Estimate for June 2020 in India
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction: The
variation in viewer’s opinion is an asset for the blog. When exponential fit is
projected and a large number of confirmed cases are numerically arrived at,
viewers ask for a turnaround prediction. When a turnaround is predicted based
on normal distribution curve, another set of viewer contradicts the views and
opine that such fast turnaround is not possible. However, the mathematical
exercise continues and in this connection, data for India in the first week of
June is analysed and a fresh prediction based on cumulative confirmed cases is
made for the entire month. Same prediction is already projected on 03.06.2020,
but now it is made more lucid for comparison. The post address for ready
reference is given below.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/india-crossing-2-lakh-confirmed-cases.html
Prediction:
Exponential variation is assumed for the cumulative confirmed cases with
14.03.2020 as reference date. The initial value or pre-exponential term is
taken as 5370 for the prediction and the activation term is taken as 0.045. The
curve for cumulative as well as daily confirmed cases are generated and
reproduced below for viewers to ascertain themselves.
Both cumulative and daily
confirmed cases are plotted on different axis and data for first 7 days of June
2020 is also superimposed. The exact numerical values are given in the figure
for actual comparison with the achieved numbers. Viewers are welcomes to
comment on variation as time progresses. The achievement of 2.0 lakh on
03.06.2020 is predicted by the fresh prediction of post on 21.05.2020, also. The
same is confirmed again on post of 03.06.2020. URL Address of both the post is
given below.
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/india-crossing-1-lakh-leads-to-fresh.html
https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/india-crossing-2-lakh-confirmed-cases.html
The data is summarized in a table
to finalize certain dubious milestones, which should not be achieved in reality
but which is calculated from the current numerical exercise. As per this, the
cumulative and daily confirmed cases are mentioned against dates for viewers to
monitor, themselves. Any deviation may be pointed out at proper time.
|
Confirmed Cases |
Date |
|
|
Cumulative |
Daily |
|
|
300000 |
13000 |
12.06.2020 |
|
350000 |
15000 |
15.06.2020 |
|
400000 |
17000 |
18.06.2020 |
|
450000 |
20000 |
21.06.2020 |
|
500000 |
22000 |
23.06.2020 |
|
550000 |
24000 |
25.06.2020 |
|
600000 |
26000 |
27.06.2020 |
Conclusion: Honouring
sentiment of viewers is my asset. For mathematics lovers, this is the
exponential variation of confirmed cases, which is not showing any turnaround
and has, for India, prediction of 3.0 lakh total confirmed cases on 12.06.2020
and 4.0 lakh total confirmed cases on 18.06.2020. Hopefully, it should not be achieved
but mathematics says so.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
This is the time we have to be very very careful. It is really scary.Hope your prediction goes wrong.
ReplyDeleteRespected sir,
DeleteMathematics is giving this type of variation. I wanted to be more clear this time, so that viewers can check themselves. It seems scary, but control is not practically seen. Somehow, Delhi and Mumbai can only do something to control it. Regards.
We find the analysis useful and prediction are coming true.God bless.
ReplyDeleteThanks for appreciation, but I strongly pray for failure of such prediction of exponential rise. Hope that any of my normal distribution simulation becomes true.
Delete