West
Bengal and Bihar on 30.05.2020: COVID Analysis
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction: Continuing
with the previous posts, In this post West Bengal and Bihar is analysed in
terms of daily confirmed cases, growth factor and doubling period. The data as
available from internet is considered correct for the month of May 2020.
West Bengal:
Total confirmed cases 4813 with 277 new cases on 30.05.2020. The recovered
cases are 1775 and number of deaths are 302.
Daily confirmed cases is
rising. Growth factor is slightly above 1 and doubling period is of the order
of 14.
Bihar: Bihar
is relatively a late starter in contributing to the number of confirmed cases.
Till, April end, the cases were controlled to less than 500. However, May saw a
cumulative growth in number of confirmed cases, as depicted in the cumulative
confirmed case graph, below. Total confirmed cases 3376 with 80 new cases on
30.05.2020. The recovered cases are 1211 and number of deaths are 15.
A quick review of the daily
confirmed cases gives a clear picture of time, during which the rise has taken
place. Around 19.05.2020, a sudden addition of around 350, led to sudden jump
in the graph and thereafter although numbers were less, but the earlier figure
of attaining less than 50 confirmed cases per day could not be repeated in
daily confirmed cases.
The Growth Factor is
calculated for the entire duration and it is found to be oscillating around 1.
More or less the growth is found above 1, for most of the period. Average
growth factor for the month of May 2020 in Bihar is 1.28, which is very high
and confirmed cases are on the rise.
Doubling period for the
cases in Bihar is very low and the confirmed cases have tendency to rise
quickly. Currently the value is stabilizing around 9, but is varying very fast.
Concluding Remarks: The
cases in West Bengal and Bihar is analysed in this post. In West Bengal, Daily
confirmed cases are rising, growth factor is also slightly above 1. These 2
factors are detrimental to the control. However, the doubling period is small,
which is positive sign. For Bihar, the cases started late, but in May the
growth was very high, with above 1 growth rate. Doubling period is also quite
low and it indicates a difficult situation in future for the state.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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