Uncontrolled Rising Trend in India and Delhi

Uncontrolled Rising Trend in India and Delhi

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Thanks to readers, friends, seniors, colleagues and acquaintances, who have given a good viewership and also given valuable feedback time to time to the posts.

 

Introduction: The confirmed cases in India is rising at a very fast pace and daily confirmed cases are also rising. It is a matter of concern that after showing an almost stagnant daily rise in confirmed cases, at around 10000, for around 7 days, now the rise has again started at very fast pace. The 4 major contributing states continued to add to the numbers, but Delhi has contributed in unique way. Delhi left behind Tamil Nadu on 24.06.2020 and after that the daily rise is almost equivalent to that from Maharashtra. This post tries to explore India and Delhi as on 26.06.2020.

 

Feedbacks: On of my friends from Bangalore Shri Raj Narayan Sharma indicated on 25.06.2020 – “Delhi ahead of Mumbai … but Delhi is testing almost 20k per day while Mumbai only around 4.5k.” This was a useful input in terms of reporting confirmed cases. On investigation, this information was found to be correct.  If number of testing is deliberately controlled then probably, data like confirmed cases per unit testing is to be accounted. If Mumbai is showing around 1200 to 1300 confirmed cases in 4500 tests, indicating around 4 tests per confirmed cases. For Delhi, around 3600 confirmed cases are found with 20000 tests, indicating around 5-6 testing needs to detect a confirmed cases. Although Delhi is reported to be moving in confirmed cases at very high pace, but test per case is high and probably Mumbai is worst hit by the Pandemic. 

Another Senior from Calcutta Shri Jeevitesh Kumar commented on 23.06.2020 on the trend of low confirmed cases on Tuesday and high confirmed cases on Thursday as – “Possibly due to the no. of people, who are infected are out in the mid-week for work and reporting on Thursday. It also gives trend that if people are indoor Saturday/Sunday, cases doesn’t rise much. My understanding.” The observation seems to be correct and it will be really a boon to humanity in India, if infected people stays back. URL of the post is as follows:

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/weekly-trend-of-growth-factor-in-india.html

My Friend Shri Dayanand Kumar has always been commenting and for the post on conversion of exponential variation to linear variation, he commented on 23.06.2020 – “Only one way is that everyone has to be hopeful for improvement. And obviously we have to remain vigilant also.” URL of the post is as follows:

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/06/prediction-for-total-confirmed-cases-in.html

Viewer’s comments are my asset and I always admire their views, comments, suggestions and support. I do appreciate the comments of Shri JN Verma on the post, regularly.

 

Status on 26.06.2020: One of the enthusiasts has posted the following trend, which is likely to be reflected in Aarogya Setu after 1000 hrs on 26.06.2020. It is some sort of a prior information. The last column, containing percentage is added by me.

 

India/States	Confirmed Cases	Active Cases	% Active Cases
India	490880	189979	38.70
Maharashtra	147741	63342	42.87
Delhi	73780	26586	36.03
Tamil Nadu	70977	30067	42.36
Uttar Pradesh	20193	6463	32.01

 

Clearly, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu has more percentage of active cases than the national average. Delhi has marginally lower active percentage, while Uttar Pradesh is much lower in terms of percentage active cases.

 

Although, attempt is made to simulate the confirmed cases using linear variation, but the trend is still looking as exponential. In fact, there was small change in daily confirmed cases during 05.06.2020 to 11.06.2020. This resulted in bringing the actual value lower than prediction by exponential variation. If that decline is accounted by offset of exponential curve. The curve is still following the same exponential variation. In fact the daily confirmed cases variation is alarming for India.

 

It is clear from the variation of daily confirmed cases that the variation is in the form of waves with dips during Sunday to Tuesday. If dip during this period is not high, the cases will continue to rise in the week. This is just an observation from the curve of daily confirmed cases and previous analysis.

Delhi is behaving a peculiar way with more and more confirmed cases surfacing. In fact daily confirmed cases are equivalent to Maharashtra, now. The total and daily confirmed cases are plotted for Delhi. Total cases exceeded 70000 and the same is show as smooth curve on left axis. The daily confirmed cases have variations and it is shown on right axis with peak value touching 4000.

 

Conclusion: Both India and Delhi has a very high rate of rise in confirmed cases. India is still at the rising limb and awareness has probably not percolated well with the masses to maintain proper vigil and control of the Pandemic. The control of Pandemic should be a people’s movement and the same must be attempted by all. Hope for a better future, faster.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar