World at 1 Crore Confirmed Cases on 28.06.2020

World at 1 Crore Confirmed Cases on 28.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: As India attained 5.0 lakh total confirmed cases on 27.06.2020, other countries of the World were also contributing significantly to the confirmed cases of the Pandemic COVID-19. This resulted in tremendous rise clocking 1 Crore total confirmed cases on 28.06.2020. 1 Crore is equivalent to 100.0  Lakh or 10,000,000 or 10 Million or 0.01 Billion. The magnanimity of number in itself is great disturbing fact and such big numbers were heard for counting population only. The current post analyses, status of Pandemic in the World for the different parameters. For reference, the current world population is 7,79,43,61,370 (7.79 Billion). Current status on 28.09.2020 for Coronavirus Cases in the world is as follows:

Total Cases: 10,088,576, Total Deaths: 501,442, Total Recovered: 5,466,534

 

Confirmed Cases: Total confirmed cases of the world is rising continuously and in last 24 hours, very large jump in seen in the confirmed cases. An exponential curve is fitted, which has activation factor much less than that for India or any other states of India. The activation factor is 0.045 for India, while for the world, it is only 0.02. Since population affected in bigger, the pre-exponential term is bigger for World.

A linear fit is also attempted with 30.03.2020 as reference date and the confirmed cases in the world is rising at a steady rate of around 105,000 (1.05 lakh) per day. The daily confirmed cases is also plotted for the world. It is showing a sudden jump in last 24 hours from around 1.88 Lakh to around 3.17 Lakh. This jump may be a result of reporting error from different sites.

 

Derived Parameters: Some of the derived parameters like growth factor of daily confirmed cases and doubling period for the total confirmed cases is also calculated and plotted against time for the world. The growth factor of the world, in general is oscillating around with factor moving around 1 and average value in June 2020 is 1.046183. However, if last 24 hours data is removed, then growth factor in June 2020 for World is 1.0225.

Doubling period of the world for total confirmed cases is also calculated and shown below. It was rising during month of Feb 2020, but it got a dip and now again it is rising. The current value of 38 days is a really commendable value and such high values indicates slower growth of Pandemic. The cumulative daily growth rate comes out to be 1.84% for the World.

Conclusion: Daily rate of rise of confirmed cases of the world is around 1.05 lakh and it is almost steady for the last around 80-90 days. The major contributing countries like USA, Russia, Brazil, India and Peru must show some restrictions to control this rapidly rising trend. The growth factor for the world is slightly more than 1, but doubling period is rising and is currently 38 days. This amount to cumulative average daily growth rate of 1.84%. The current death percentage is 4.79% of the total confirmed cases, for the world.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar