Tamil
Nadu Delhi and Gujarat on 30.05.2020: COVID Analysis
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction:
Analysis of Cumulative Confirmed Cases of COVID for different countries of the
world, India, Maharashtra and Pune is presented in previous posts. In this
post, attempt is made to analyse those states where cumulative confirmed
cases have reached more than 10000, by 30.05.2020. These states are Tamil
Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat, apart from Maharashtra, which is analysed, earlier. From
cumulative confirmed cases, daily confirmed cases, growth factor and doubling
period is calculated in this post for these three states of India.
Data Collection:
Data is mainly taken from Aarogya Setu App. India on 30.05.2020 recorded 173763
total confirmed cases with a daily new cases as 7964 on 30.05.2020. The
recovered cases are reported as 82370 and total number of deaths are 4971.
Percentage active cases are 48% and doubling period is 13 days. Maharashtra on
30.05.2020 recorded 62228 total confirmed cases with a daily new cases as 2682 on
30.05.2020. The recovered cases are reported as 26997 and total number of
deaths are 2098. Percentage active cases are 53% and doubling period is 13
days. India and Maharashtra are analysed in many previous posts. So the other
three major confirmed case contributors are analysed.
Tamil Nadu:
Tamil Nadu on 30.05.2020 recorded 21184 total confirmed cases with a daily new
cases as 978 on 30.05.2020. Percentage active cases are 43% and doubling period
is 14 days. The daily confirmed cases are shown below, which has a rising trend
and is a point of concern.
However, the doubling
period, which was as low as 5 in the beginning of May 2020, has improved to 13,
by 19.05.2020. The reverse calculation can be conducted to show that now it is
14 days.
The growth factor of Tamil
Nadu is oscillating around 1, but control effect is not visible. A value less
than 1 for the Growth Factor is preferred.
NCT of Delhi:
Delhi NCT on 30.05.2020 recorded 17386 total confirmed cases with a daily new
cases as 1105 on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are reported as 7846 and total
number of deaths are 398. Percentage active cases are 52% and doubling period
is 14 days. For Delhi Data for 30.04.2020 could not be extracted. The daily
confirmed case displayed the following trend
The growth daily factor is
also calculated and the graph is always on the positive side displaying a
continuous growth in numbers.
The doubling period of Delhi
is continuously increasing and it is a controlling sign.
Gujarat:
Gujarat on 30.05.2020 recorded 15934 total confirmed cases with a daily new
cases as 372 on 30.05.2020. The recovered cases are reported as 8611 and total
number of deaths are 980. Percentage active cases are 39% and doubling period
is 20 days.
As far as daily confirmed
cases are concerned, Gujarat is showing a sudden jump on 16.05.2020 of 1057
cases. It may be an error, but the cumulative figures are matching. Leaving
this odd day, the daily confirmed cases have increased in the beginning of
April 2020, but in May, the value was more or less stable. The growth factor indicates
the stability of values and it is more or less near 1 for Gujarat, in the month
of May 2020.
The doubling period is also
quite controlled and is high, which indicates a better control. The value is touching
20 days, which can definitely lead to better control, as compared to other
states where it is around 13-14.
Conclusion:
Tamil Nadu displayed trend of quick rise in the beginning of May 2020, but
improvement of doubling period to 14 can control the quick growth in June 2020.
Delhi is showing large jumps, and growth factor is also on higher side, but the
doubling period is also high and a control is expected in June 2020. Gujarat,
although displayed bigger numbers, but has a stable growth factor of 1 in May
and doubling period has also been very high. Out of these states, Gujarat is
showing a better and stable trend for control of confirmed cases.
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
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