Analysis of COVID Cases in India

Analysis of COVID Cases in India

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

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Introduction: The number of confirmed cases in India is increasing at a very high pace and it is at 145380 total confirmed cases on 26.05.2020, as per Aarogya Setu app. The addition in last 24 hours is 6535. Similarly, total number of recovered, so far is 60491, with recovery in last 1 day is 2770. Similarly, in last 1 day 146 new death cases are reported, making the deceased count to 4167. The current status is depicted below, in graph.

Analysis: For India, percentage death over total confirmed cases is calculated and depicted in figure above. The death percentage has reduced in last 20 days and has gone below 3%, now. Exponential curve is fitted to total confirmed cases and the prediction is made for the total number of confirmed cases also for India. As per this prediction, the number of confirmed case is likely to touch 200000 by 01.06.2020.

The number of deceased is also rising in same pace and an exponential curve is fitted to this curve also. By 30.05.2020, more than 5000 deceased are predicted by this fit. 

Future is unknown, but the cases are rising in India at a tremendous pace. The control is not visible in near future. The doubling period is also calculated and it is possible to calculate the value till 12.05.2020, where it is 13.

Conclusion: Analysis for India on 26.05.2020, indicate that Total number of confirmed cases will reach 200000 by 01.06.2020. The total number of deceased will also be reaching 5000 by 30.05.2020. The prevailing doubling rate of 13 days has to be raised further to get a turnaround in India. 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar