Prediction Status for India and Maharastra: 25 May 2020

Prediction Status for India and Maharastra: 25 May 2020

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Introduction: Based on available data for the cumulative confirmed cases in India, predictions were made on 30.04.2020 for the entire month of May 2020. However, India recorded considerable less number of confirmed cases, in course of time and after 15 May 2020, the actual data diverged from prediction by a large amount demanding a fresh prediction on 20 May 2020. In current post, status of performance of prediction with respect to actual confirmed cases will be reconciled. For the Indian state Maharastra, predictions made on 30.04.2020 were found valid till 20.05.2020 and the current status of the same is reviewed.

India: There are two predictions available for India, but prediction on 30.04.2020, is already discarded earlier as an overestimate. However, the same is plotted against actual number of confirmed cases in the figure. The Pearson coefficient from 15.03.2020 to 24.05.2020, for this curve is calculated to be 0.96066.

As far as, prediction for India on 20.05.2020 is concerned, it was estimated that 1.20L will be achieved in India by 24.05.2020. Actual cumulative confirmed cases crossed 1.20L on 23.05.2020, which means one day in advance, as compared to prediction. In the plotted curve, the actual confirmed cases, lie between the predictions on 30.04.2020 and 20.05.2020. The curve for actual is in the vicinity of prediction on 20.05.2020. The Pearson Coefficient is calculated as 0.999471 for data, as per prediction on 20.05.2020, from 15.03.2020 to 24.05.2020.

Maharastra: Prediction for Maharastra made on 30.04.2020, was also an overestimate, but the trend is similar. The numerical value of cumulative confirmed cases on 24.05.2020 is 47190, whereas it is predicted to be crossing 50000, by 24.05.2020. The prediction is deviated by 1 day. However, the prediction made for a random number, type data called cumulative confirmed cases on 30.04.2020 is valid approximately for 24 days is commendable. To support this Pearson Coefficient is calculated for the extrapolation period from 30.04.2020 to 24.05.2020 and it is found as 0.998747. The match is considerably good.

Unwanted Remarks: As per prediction of 20.05.2020 for India, cumulative confirmed cases on 27.05.2020, will cross 1.40L and 1.60L on 29.05.2020. Additionally, the daily confirmed cases will touch 7000 by 27.05.2020 and 8000 by 29.05.2020. It must fail for India to achieve a quick turnaround. Otherwise, India is moving towards, a much higher number and effect of lockdown is only delaying the case-explosion. As far as Maharastra, is concerned, no new prediction is made and Prediction on 30.04.2020 continues to be valid with slightly overestimated numbers.

The talk of turnaround in India is on the wish-list, but the current trend is not in favour of any turnaround. Adding various COVID-carriers through relaxations, air-travel, migration, festival, public non-cooperation, and government indecision is boosting the daily confirmed case count. Against all these odds, there are only few COVID controllers – Personal immunity, CORONA Warriors and Almighty God. The discussion on lowering of death rate, improvement in recovery rate, concentration on active cases, population explosion in India due to lockdown for combating the loss of  people, are valid, but has very little bearing on the main cause of rapidly increasing number of daily confirmed cases, which is taxing the healthcare, economy, industry, lifestyle, and other infrastructure of the country. Till, any evidence or prior intimation of turnaround exist, it is better to continue living with these large numbers, which Indian are more accustomed to handling. After all, India is a populous country.

Conclusion: Predictions are made for the current COVID confirmed cases for India and Maharastra, to fail and any failure must be rejoiced in case of current situation. However, a pre-achievement is a sign of deteriorating performance and the talk of any deviation from the predicted exponential rise in downward direction must be encouraged, hope that talks become reality, if spoken in auspicious period. Maharastra is definitely not achieving 60000 cumulative confirmed cases by 27.05.2020 and restricting this number to less than 70000 by the May-end, may be considered a good control. Hope that India is not achieving 1.60L cumulative confirmed cases and 8500 daily confirmed cases by May-end. Pray for failure of all predictions and Act of God may bring faster turnaround in India.

Dr Himanshu Shekhar