Mathematical Analysis of COVID-19 Spread: Switzerland
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction: For the mathematical analysis of COVID-19, case of Switzerland is taken, which reported first case on 25 Feb 2020. As on 15 May 2020, It has reported total 30514 number of confirmed cases, out of which 27200 cases resulted in recovery. This makes 3554 confirmed cases per million of its population. Switzerland reported total 1595 deaths due to COVID-19.
Collection of Data: The variation of daily confirmed cases is collected from internet and the variation is plotted. It is having a single broader peak and two surges, as was seen in case of New Zealand is not visible here.
Mathematical Analysis: A single normal distribution curve is fitted to the given data and the control parameters of the normal distribution curves are obtained. The normal distribution curve has amplitude of 1200, which is equivalent to maximum daily number of infected cases. The value of mean is 92, which indicates that peak value is attained on 92nd day of the year or on 01 April 2020. The variation indicates that actually, from the advent of first case, it took 50 days to get a peak, after that reduction in number of cases started for Switzerland. The standard deviation is obtained as 200, which is very high, making it a broader peak as compared to New Zealand. Total cycle of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland can be assumed be equal to 100 days without any skewness.
Conclusion: The Mathematical analysis of total number of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Switzerland is analysed using Normal Distribution curve. It is a perfectly normal distribution with amplitude of 1200, mean of 50 and standard deviation of 200. Daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Switzerland attained a peak in 50 days and after that it declined, reaching to negligible proportion in 100 days.
Buy this analogy, in India we have to wait for another 40 days to fully control the situation.
ReplyDeleteYes, but the normal distribution curve can be skewed also, resulting in a sharper decline than rise. However, in general, the decline is slower than rise for the pandemic.
DeleteI am thinking of another strategy for analysing the number of Confirmed cases in India. It is based on kinametics of ski-jumping on an upward hill. I am evolving the concept. Hopefully, I will post it tomorrow.