Prediction of COVID-19 in India upto 10 May 2020

Prediction of COVID-19 in India upto 10 May 2020

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Introduction: The prediction was made for the total number of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases for the month of May 2020 on 30 April 2020, using data from 15 March 2020 to 30 April 2020. The prediction for India and Maharastra is reproduced below. 

Background of Prediction: It must be noted that the prediction of an upward bend is very difficult and stating it to be an exponential fit is not sufficient. It must be understood that in a simple exponential function also, there are pre-exponent factor, multiplier to variation (called activation function) and offset function (used rarely in science), which the bare minimum number of control parameters to be ascertained. The derivation of exponential function for the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic is based on inverse of the curve generated for blast pressure from an explosion site, in the Defence Science. It is understood that, the blast pressure curves for incident as well as reflected blast pressure could not be correctly extrapolated. This background is given, now, because the prediction is found to be matching for India as well as Maharastra for the first 10 days and the confidence is gained in the prediction methodology, now. The background of derivation is given to apprise that the prediction has a close resemblance to the blast pressure, generated by explosion at a site and the knowledge gained from Defence Science is useful for such predictions. 

Data Source: The data is extracted from the google news site for the confirmed cases from India as well as for Maharastra:

https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IN&gl=IN&ceid=IN%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F03rk0

 

Status on 10 May 2020: Initially, it was thought to be an exaggerated number for India, but as time passed, the data were received and plotted against the prediction. It is surprising to note that the values are matching to the predicted values, more or less for India as Well As Maharastra for the total number of Confirmed Cases for COVID-19.

 

Conclusion: India and Maharastra, both would have controlled by now, due to ongoing lockdown and number of reported cases must have been much lower than, what was predicted on 30.04.2020, using Blast Pressure type prediction from an explosion site. The spread of Pandemic has been similar to what is obtained from an Explosion site, only time domain is expanded. In Explosion, the phenomena takes place in micro-seconds duration, whereas for the Pandemic, it is taking place in days. Hopefully, some controlling factor may prevail and restrict this incessant rise in number of confirmed cases in Maharastra and India. At present, the rate of rise is slowing down and it is expected that on 15 May 2020, when next matching of actual and prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases is posted, the number of confirmed cases will be much lower than the predictions made on 30 April 2020. Till that time, ironically, the prediction holds, which I strongly feel, should fail.