Countries
with Turnaround in COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: Part 3
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Introduction:
Daily confirmed cases for Pandemic Covid-19 in 11 countries namely New Zealand,
Switzerland, Germany, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Malaysia, Greece,
Croatia and Iceland, are simulated using normal distribution curves in previous
4 post. These countries are selected because they are recording less than 50
confirmed cases daily as on 17.05.2020. Additionally, these countries have
total number of confirmed cases exceeding 1500. The analysis is undertaken to
understand the behaviour of turnaround for the daily confirmed cases, so that
prediction can be made for turnaround in India.
Features: Normal
distribution curve is taken for analysis because the actual number of confirmed
cases are fluctuating and it is difficult to derive any conclusion from them.
The normal distribution curves are made to match the actual number of daily confirmed
cases, so that derived conclusions can be extended further.
Since peak values have wide
variation, three superimposed plots are generated. First plot contains normal
distribution curve for Germany, only. The second plot contains Switzerland,
Israel, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. The third plot contains data for
Malaysia, Greece, Croatia, Iceland and New Zealand. These curves are shown
below.
Salient Parameters from the
normal distribution curves, mentioned in previous 4 posts for these 11
countries are tabulated to understand the nature.
|
Country
|
Peak
Value
|
Date
of peak
|
Days
to reach peak
|
Total
Time in days
|
|
Germany
|
6190
|
01.04.2020
|
92-65=27
|
135-65=70
|
|
Switzerland
|
1200
|
01.04.2020
|
92-62=30
|
122-62=60
|
|
Israel
|
846
|
06.04.2020
|
97-68=29
|
126-68=58
|
|
Japan
|
600
|
17.04.2020
|
108-74=34
|
142-74=68
|
|
South
Korea
|
800
|
03.03.2020
|
63-51=12
|
75-51=24
|
|
Australia
|
500
|
28.03.2020
|
88-68=20
|
108-68=40
|
|
Malaysia
|
194
|
27.03.2020
|
87-60=27
|
142-60=82
|
|
Greece
|
100
|
30.03.2020
|
90-60=30
|
120-60=60
|
|
Croatia
|
87
|
27.03.2020
|
89-62=27
|
134-62=72
|
|
Iceland
|
100
|
28.03.2020
|
87-60=27
|
114-60=54
|
|
New
Zealand
|
86
92
|
27.03.2020
04.04.2020
|
7
15
|
22
|
From the table, it is clear
that three countries New Zealand, South Korea and Australia had a very small
spell of Pandemic and they controlled it very fast (within 30 days). Other level of countries took around 60 days
to control the pandemic, with Malaysia taking around 82 days (around 3 months).
The control is not proportional to the peak value also and higher peak value of
confirmed cases are controlled in less duration in certain cases, as can be
seen from the table.
Prediction for India:
Assuming that the behaviour of Pandemic will be a Normal Distribution curve for
India, from the data available till 17.05.2020, various normal distribution
curves are fitted and prediction for the turnaround in India is estimated. As
per first estimate, as shown below, the peak number of daily confirmed cases will
reach 5000 and after that turnaround will starts. This is a very optimistic
estimate and turnaround is supposed to take place on 29.05.2020.
Even if, a slightly pessimistic
estimate of peak daily confirmed cases of 6000 is assumed, the normal
distribution curve is shown below. As per this, turnaround is expected in India
on 08.06.2020.
Conclusion:
Analysis of 11 countries, using normal distribution curve is carried out to understand
the behaviour of Pandemic control. These 11 countries have displayed control on
Pandemic and have variation expressed as Normal Distribution Curve. Based on
this analysis, Normal Distribution curve is generated for India, based on data
available till 17.05.2020. Most optimistic estimate of achieving a daily peak
of confirmed cases as 5000, the turnaround in India is expected on 29.05.2020.
If the daily confirmed cases rises to 6000, then turnaround will take place on
08.06.2020. I sincere hope that this estimate of Turnaround come true for
India.
|
S.No
|
Peak
|
Turnaround
|
|
1
|
4500
|
21
May 2020
|
|
2
|
5000
|
29
May 2020
|
|
3
|
6000
|
08
June 2020
|
Dr Himanshu Shekhar
Hope your prediction comes true
ReplyDeleteSir,
DeleteThe situation is bad again with the rapid surge on 18.05 & 19.05. I was expecting a restricted growth, but it is faster than my assumption. Let's hope for the best.
Hope for the good
ReplyDeleteYes. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
DeleteWhy you have left out America from the case study? Today India witness more than 5200 new confirm case in last 24 hours. Hope peak value will be 5400. So even then, turnaround time may come in first week of June surely. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe confirmed cases are increasing at a faster pace than I thought. I was expecting 1 lakh by 21.05, but it is attained probably on 19.05. I am finding that Mondays are difficult for India and a jump is seen on most of the week-starts.
DeleteAmerica is still struggling to control, but some downward trend is there. I have added data for America in next post.
DeleteDr.Himanshu very deep study & excellent predicted
ReplyDeleteThank you Kulkarni saheb. Great to have your motivating comments.
Deleteabove comments sent by P.G.Kulkarni.
ReplyDelete