Countries with Turnaround in COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: Part 1

Countries with Turnaround in COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: Part 1

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Introduction: The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, in various countries of the world have different trends. In this post, those countries are selected, where total number of confirmed cases is more than 1000 and daily addition of cases is less than or around 50 as on 17.05.2020. In other words, those countries where turnaround of confirmed cases of COVID-19, is achieved, are selected. These countries have displayed good measures to restrict, but in this post, parameters of normal distribution curves will be derived for these countries. The selected countries and their salient parameters as on 17.05.2020, in respect of COVID-19 related cases is tabulated below.

Country	Total confirmed cases	Case per million population	Recovered	Death
Germany	176244	2120	152600	8027
Switzerland	30572	3560	27400	1602
Israel	16606	1809	12820	267
Japan	16253	129	10809	729
South Korea	11050	213	9888	263
Australia	7048	275	6362	98
Malaysia	6894	211	5571	113
Greece	2819	263	1374	162
Croatia	2224	546	1913	95
Iceland	1802	4947	1782	10
New Zealand	1149	231	1433	21

Among the countries listed in the table, separate posts are already available for New Zealand and Switzerland. Other countries will be analysed in this post for arriving at the salient normal distribution parameters.

GERMANY: The confirmed cases in Germany attained a peak very fast and the fall is relatively slower. The nature of curve make be simulated with combination of two normal distribution curves with some introduced skewness. The skewness is introduced by offsetting both the normal distribution curves in mean and by giving different standard deviations to both the normal distributions. The simulation curve is given, superimposed over the actual confirmed cases. The amplitude for both the normal distribution curves are 3500, while mean for the curves are 50 and 40 and standard deviations are 300 and 100, respectively. The peak of normal distribution curve is 6190.

ISRAEL: Israel has a sharp peak of 1176 on 04 April 2020 and if that assorted data is ignored, the variation of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Israel is more or less controlled in time. The curve is simulated using combination of two normal distribution curves. The amplitude and standard deviation of both the curves are kept same, as 500 and 150, respectively. The mean of the two curves are different, as 40 and 50. The peak is attained on 06 April as 847, by the simulated curve. The combined normal distribution curve is skewed slightly.

JAPAN: Japan has a relatively flatter curves, but a single spike of 1401 confirmed case on 12 April 2020 is observed. Ignoring this, the curve for Japan is relatively easy to simulate. It is simulated by single normal distribution curve with mean 50, standard deviation 250 and amplitude 600. The peak is attained on 17 April 2020 as 600 for the normal distribution curve.

SOUTH KOREA: South Korea has very sharp rise and fall. It is simulated by single normal distribution curve with amplitude of 800, mean 40 and standard deviation of 30. The normal distribution curve shows a peak on 03 March 2020.

AUSTRALIA: Australia is showing a relative high fluctuation of confirmed cases at the peak instances. However, rise and fall is relatively smooth. Combination of two normal distribution curves were used for simulating the variation. The mean and amplitude of both the curves were same as 50 and 250, respectively. The standard deviation of the curves were 100 and 25. The combined peak of the normal distribution is obtained on 28 March 2020 as 500 confirmed cases.

In next Part, other countries like Malaysia, Greece, Croatia and Iceland will be covered, followed by a summary part to derive some conclusion, based on the numerical simulation, which can be used for India, for the prediction of turnaround.

Dr Himanshu Shekhar