Analysis of COVID-19 in Pune

Analysis of COVID-19 in Pune

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Introduction: Predictive capabilities were developed for the number of confirmed cases for India and Maharastra and the same has been posted in many previous posts. One of the interested Reader, Dr Harneet V. Thakur, suggested to conduct the analysis for Pune and this post is a result of the request. The data up to 26.05.2020 is compiled, analyzed and presented in this Post of the blog.

Data Collection: Pune is said to be in high alert zone, along with Mumbai, amongst various cities of Maharatsra. The number of cases was proportionately very high and it is matter of concern for Punekars to pray and achieve a quick turnaround in number of confirmed cases. The data is collected from available sources on Internet and the variation of confirmed cases is depicted below with 6153 cumulative confirmed cases, as on 26.05.2020. On 24.05.2020, when number of total confirmed cases were 5485, 2329 (42.46%) were marked as active, 2902 (52.91%) were discharged and 254 (4.63%) were deceased. 

 

Data Analysis: Although analyzing a smaller domain is difficult, but the data presented in the form of plot, has a definite variation, which may be analyzed. First of all exponential curve is fitted. The in-built function gave a very poor fit, as visible from the plot. So, exponential fit is developed to fit the given data with Pearson Coefficient of 0.99811.

The data of doubling period (definition available in previous post) is also calculated for confirmed cases in Pune. Number of confirmed cases in Pune on 13.05.2020 was 3161, double of which (2x3161 = 6322) is not achieved till 26.05.2020. So doubling period can be calculated up to 12.05.2020. the same is calculated and depicted below.

The doubling period has a wide variation. Around 30.03.2020, it attained a very low value, indicating a sudden upsurge or rise in number of cases. The period has got a dip around 30.04.2020, also, indicating a grave situation at April-end also. However, by 12.05.2020, it is around 12, which indicates a fairly good control. Higher the doubling period, higher will be chances of reduction in confirmed cases. Hope that there is no further dip in near future.

Predictive Capabilities: Both the above, analysis, can help in prediction of cases in future. If current rate of rise is maintained, then as per exponential growth, depicted, there will be 7617 confirmed cases by 31.05.2020. If the rise follows the trend of exponential growth depicted, it may cross 10000 by 06.06.2020. Hope that some control measures become effective and these predictions fail. With total number of confirmed cases of 6153 on 26.05.2020, if a doubling period of 12, is assumed, then also, by 30.05.2020, total number of cumulative cases is calculated as 7752. With doubling period of 12 days, the 10000 total confirmed cases in Pune will be achieved by 03.06.2020. Both the numbers are in closed agreement.

Attempt is also made to find out turnaround by fitting a normal distribution curve. However, some assumption about time of turnaround is needed. The normal distribution parameter is derived and plotted below for the daily number of confirmed cases.

Since daily confirmed cases has very large variation, the curve cannot be fitted nicely to the given data. However, an attempt is made to fit the normal distribution curve. For stabilization of around 400 cases, the turnaround is predicted on 12.06.2020, but Pearson Coefficient is only 0.732206. however, future is unknown and the data has very wide variation in numerical values.

Conclusion: Data available for the Indian City Pune is analyzed to develop a predictive capability for total number of confirmed cases. Around 7600 total number of confirmed cases is predicted by 30.05.2020 and 10000 total confirmed cases will reqach by 06.06.2020. The exponential rise and prevailing doubling period of 12 days, both are giving almost similar prediction. Normal distribution curve is fitted assuming a turnaround, arbitrarily after achieving a peak of 400. The date of such turnaround is 12.06.2020 for Pune. Hope that Pune achieves turnaround before this date.

Dr Himanshu Shekhar