Countries with Turnaround in COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: Part 2

Countries with Turnaround in COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: Part 2

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Introduction: The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, in various countries of the world have different trends. In part 1, of this post, data on some of those countries are selected, where total number of confirmed cases is more than 1000 and daily addition of cases is less than or around 50 as on 17.05.2020. In other words, those countries where turnaround of confirmed cases of COVID-19, is achieved, are selected. These countries have displayed good measures to restrict, but in this post, parameters of normal distribution curves will be derived for these countries. In part 1, Normal distribution curves for Germany, Israel, South Korea, Japan and Australia were presented. The same post is continued with analysis of other countries, like Malaysia, Greece, Croatia and Iceland.

MALAYSIA: Malaysia displayed very large fluctuation in daily number of confirmed cases. It is looking like a step function for the rise and same is the situation for the fall in number of daily confirmed cases. It seems that a second surge was also contemplated, but that was not very severe. The simulation desired a skewed curve with quick rise and prolonged fall in number of confirmed cases. The simulation of normal distribution needs combination of two curves. The amplitude for both is 120. One normal distribution has mean and standard deviation as 50 and 400, respectively. For the second normal distribution, the mean and standard deviation are 35 and 100, respectively. This gave a peak value of 194 on 27^th March 2020.

GREECE: Greece has a peculiar curve, where fluctuations are more. There is a second surge of cases, which is dominant. First peak of the nominal curve is attained on 03 April 2020 as 139, but the second and higher peak of the second surge is 156 on 22 April 2020. However, for normal distribution simulation the second surge is neglected and the value of first part is simulated by single normal distribution curve, with amplitude of 100, mean of 50 and standard deviation of 200. The normal distribution has a peak of 100 on 30 April 2020.

CROATIA: Croatia has single surge of confirmed cases and despite fluctuation in values, it has a quick rise and slightly elongated fall in daily number of confirmed cases. It is simulated by combination of two normal distribution curves, each having an amplitude of 50. The means for the two curves are 50 and 40 and their standard deviations are 300 and 50, respectively. The peak of normal distribution is realized as 87 on 29 March 2020.

ICELAND: Iceland has a single surge of daily confirmed cases, but the distribution is slightly skewed. However, it can be simulated with single normal distribution curve. The amplitude, mean and standard deviation are 100, 50 and 150, respectively. The peak is attained on 28 March 2020 as 100 for the normal distribution curve.

Conclusion: The countries are selected, which have controlled COVID-19 spread and it includes Germany, Israel, Japan, South Kores, Australia, Malaysia, Greece, Croatia and Iceland. The case for New Zealand and Switzerland is already presented in previous post. Total 11 countries are simulated using normal distribution curves. Most of the countries are showing a turnaround in 50 days and the normal distribution curve gives an insight into the nature of the daily confirmed cases in selected countries. Rise Period and Fall Period can be monitored to get an idea about the countries, where the Pandemic is not controlled yet.