Status of COVID-19 in Maharastra: 17 May 2020

Status of COVID-19 in Maharastra: 17 May 2020

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Introduction: As estimated on 30.04.2020, Maharastra was supposed to reach 30000 total number of confirmed cases by 17.05.2020 and the same is found true today. This post takes into account the current status of confirmed cases in the Indian state Maharastra.

Prediction: The prediction, as posted on 30.04.2020 is reproduced below. It is based on exponential distribution with same constant as used for India, except that initial infected population was assumed to be 2.5 to 3 times that for India, on rationalized population basis. The curve shown below is given in first post of the blog, also.

Current Status: Total number of infected cases of COVID-19, in Maharastra is taken from Aarogya setu app as 30706, on 17.05.2020. This makes 269 confirmed cases per million for Maharastra, as on 17.05.2020. The total recovered cases is 7088 and total number of deceased is 1135, making the number of active cases to 22483. The data is taken from the internet site also and is reproduced below.

Validation: The actual and predicted trend of Maharastra over time, for the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is superimposed and plotted. It is clear that Maharastra is still showing the rising trend and is following the predicted curve in totality till 17.05.2020. However, a slight hope is that the actual graph is slightly on lower side than prediction, for 17.05.2020. Although, 30000 number is crossed on 17.05.2020, but the number of cases are lower than prediction and this lowering should further augment to give a large gap between prediction and actual in subsequent time.  

For India, the total number of confirmed cases is only 90927 on 17.05.2020, which will take at least 3-4 more days to cross 1 lakh mark. So the prediction is off by around 4 days for India. It indirectly indicates that India has responded well and have collectively controlled the situation to lower the total number of confirmed cases. The proper control only has led to reduction in a gap of around 10000 confirmed cases on 17.05.2020. It is a race against time and achievement of a turnaround, at an early stage, is the main requirement.

Conclusion: It is irony of fate that Maharastra failed to respond properly and restrict the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 till 17.05.2020. The crossing of 30000 cases on 17.05.2020 indicates that more stringent measures are needed at Maharastra, to control the spread of Pandemic. Currently, the next milestone of 40000 cases by 21.05.2020, though seems unlikely and I also believe that Mahastra will not have 40000 cases by 21.05.2020. However, future is unknown and wait for the appropriate time to come. I pray that my prediction for Maharatsra also fail by 21.05.2020, the way it failed for India on 15.05.2020.