Assessment of Active Cases of COVID – 19 in India

Assessment of Active Cases of COVID – 19 in India

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Thank you viewers for encouragement and positive feedbacks. Hope that I remain negative, despite the positivity bestowed on me.

Introduction: In all the previous posts, attention is focused on cumulative and daily number of confirmed cases, for analysis or prediction. Actually, the confirmed cases and number of deceased were reliably obtained from different sources and they were found matching, also. However, number of recoveries and number of active cases were found different at different sites. Additionally, data for Indian states are also not available for analysis, from one source. In the current post, data from one of the sites, where recovered cases were given, is used to get certain other parameters and trends, which were not explored earlier.

Data collection: The data obtained from the site is available till 19.05.2020, only and recent trend could not be derived. The curve is plotted below for four parameters – Confirmed cases, Recovered cases, Deceased cases and Active cases.

At any point of time, the number of confirmed cases is equal to sum of other three cases. No prediction can be made from the slope of the curves at any point of time, because it becomes a qualitative exercise. For getting an insight, the data is processed further for analysis.

Analysis: The percentage or fractional value of other cases with respect to cumulative confirmed cases at that point of time is plotted. The graph clearly indicates that number of active cases were on decline and so was the variation of percentage death. The percentage recovery was increasing. As far as plot is concerned, active and recovery percentages are plotted on primary of left y-axis. On same plot, value of death percentage was too small to depict. So death fraction is shown on secondary or right y-axis. The values of death fractions are very low as compared to other two. Variation for all three were positive trends, but it must be kept in mind that the data up to 19.05.2020 is only analyzed, here

As per percentage of confirmed cases, the recovered percentage must exceed active percentage, for better control of Pandemic. The recovered percentage move up faster to reach a level of 80-85%, so that control and turnaround is clearly and conclusively visible. The data is further analyzed for the doubling period for each of the parameter. For this case data from 15.03.2020 to those dates, where doubling period could be ascertained for each case is considered.

The doubling period is found more for Active cases and it is found higher than confirmed case doubling period. This indirectly indicates that, number of confirmed cases is taking less time to double than time taken by number of active cases to double. At equal potency, this indicates a higher percentage of recovery and death combined. The concern is that death percentage is also taking almost similar time to double. Actually, the doubling period for death should be very high and doubling period of recovery should be very low. Ideally, the doubling period should have a sequence Death > Active > Confirmed > Recovery.

Conclusion: The recovery data is analyzed for the first time in any post of my blog. It is clear that the recovery percentage as compared to confirmed cases is rising and it is good sign to exhibit control. However, the doubling period needs further lowering for recovery data to 3-4 days. The confirmed cases, active cases must have a doubling period of exceeding 20 days. The doubling period for death must be 25-30 days for better control.

Dr Himanshu Shekhar