Prediction and Actual for India on 30.05.2020

Prediction and Actual for India on 30.05.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

 

Introduction: The COVID-19 cases in India and Maharastra is analysed throughout the month of May 2020, against a pseudo-mathematical model fitted to available data. The match or deviation of actual number of confirmed cases from prediction is updated at many earlier occasion. As May 2020 is coming to an end, it is mixed reaction at various point of time. Sometimes, the numbers are reducing sometimes it is rising at faster pace. Current post takes status of confirmed cases on 30.05.2020.

India on 30.05.2020: For India, prediction made on 30.04.2020 was discarded on 17.05.2020 and a fresh prediction is made on 20.05.2020. The confirmed cases are behaving as random number. There is no relation between confirmed cases of yesterday and today. Despite that a trend is made and on 29.05.2020 the total number of cumulative cases attained 165799. The status of prediction and actual confirmed cases for India is depicted below.

 

 

It is clear that the actual confirmed cases is matching to the predictions made on 20.05.2020. In fact India displayed crossing of 1.4L on 24.05.2020 and that of 1.6L on 29.05.2020. If a slowdown is not envisaged in near future, then by 15.06.2020, the situation becomes very grave. The next thing to look at in the prediction for India is India should get less than 2.0L cumulative cases by 03.06.2020. In addition to cumulative confirmed cases, the daily confirmed cases has also reached around 7000, as per post on 29.05.2020 and it is also a negative sign in controlling the spread. In fact doubling period analysis for India has also reduced and it dropped from 12 at around 09.05.2020 to 9 on 15.05.2020. At present, calculation beyond 15.05.2020 is not possible, because double of number of confirmed cases on 16.05.2020 is not attained yet.

 

 

Maharastra on 30.05.2020: For Maharastra, predictions were made on 30.04.2020 and the same is continued to be effective till date with prediction showing a slightly higher figure. It clearly indicates that the Number of confirmed cases in Maharastra is lower than predictions made on 30.04.2020, and the difference is also increasing.

 

 

However, expecting the validity of prediction for full month may make it a perfect forecast, which is never claimed. The downwards deviation from prediction may not be a point of complacency, as the doubling period is not in line.  For Maharastra, Doubling period became 8 on 16.05.2020. This reduction is again a matter of concern, as turnaround is pushed away by this trend.

 

 

Pune on 30.05.2020: Pune on 29.05.2020 registered total confirmed cases of 7012, but active cases were much smaller. The variation at Pune followed the prediction, made on 26.05.2020. The variation is shown below.

 

 

The doubling period for Pune is found to around 10 on 15.05.2020, which is better than India and Maharastra during that period.

 

Conclusion: Overall, the fresh prediction made for India on 20.05.2020 is valid for last 10 days. The prediction made for Maharastra on 30.04.2020 is retained and it is slightly overestimated than actual. As far as doubling period is concern, it is bad for both India and Maharastra, as it is reduced to the level of 8-9.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar