Prediction of COVID-19 Confirmed Case for May 2020 in India

Prediction of COVID-19 Confirmed Case for May 2020 in India

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

The current trend for cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is taken from Googlenews from 15 March 2020 to 30 April 2020 and a plot against time is shown below for 6 states and India. 

However, as the population is different in different states, taking numbers alone may not be a good practice. So, the number of cases must be rationalized for equal population in respective domains. The rationalized data is shown below. Obviously, Delhi is showing a very erratic and high values. The value of Maharastra is next followed by that from Gujarat. The two matching curves is from MP and Rajasthan. It is followed by curve for India. UP is showing the least number of rationalized total confirmed cases of COVID-19. 

Based on available data from 15 March 2020 to 30 April 2020, exponential growth rate is assumed for India and after validating the available data for 45 days, prediction is made for the month of May 2020. This is shown below. 

With same mathematical tool, predictions are made for Maharastra also. It is observed that the initial population from which infection started seems to be exaggerated by at least 3 times and other control parameters and constants in modeling are the same, as used for the prediction for India, above. 

Future is unpredictable and unknown, but an estimate is made to understand the behaviour of confirmed cases of infections of COVID-19 in India and Indian States. This is just a mathematical exercise and turn around is not envisaged in this case, till end May 2020. Please note that it is not depicting active cases but total confirmed cases for the given population and geographical domain.