Prediction
of Covid-19 in India: 15 May 2020
Dr
Himanshu Shekhar
Background: The
prediction made on 30.04.2020 about India and Maharastra is reviewed, every 5
days, for the confirmed cases of COVID-19. The prediction is made on 30 April
2020, using same law for both India and Maharastra with same rise rate. The
high rate of rise in Maharastra was attributed to higher initial infected
population. Same law is applied for both India and Maharatsra. The predictions
were found matching till 10 May 2020 for both the situations.
India: The
data for India is reproduced from Internet.
Total number of confirmed
cases on 15.05.2020 is 81970, which is very less as compared to prediction and
probably effect of lockdown is visible and the trend was expected and indicated
during matching on 10.05.2020. It was stated on 10.05.2020, that for India, the
actual curve is flattening and probably, the situation will not be as severe as
predicted on 30.04.2020. The same has become true.
It is clear that the actual
data on 15.05.2020 is lower by around 10000 than prediction and the control, in
general is visible on the curve. It is clear that the number of confirmed cases
in India will reach 1 lakh not on 17.05.2020, as predicted but at least 4 days
later, if no sudden outburst or unwanted situation arise, in between and
current trend is maintained.
Maharatsra: The
data for Maharastra is taken from same site and is reproduced below. The total
number of confirmed cases on 15.05.2020 in Maharastra is 27524, and on
15.05.2020 1605 new cases are registered. One conclusion that can be drawn is
that the prediction of crossing 25000 cases on 14.05.2020 is attained by
Maharastra.
The number of confirmed
cases on 15.05.2020 was predicted to be 28005, which is very near to actual but
on higher side. So, some flattening of curve for Maharastra is also expected in
next prediction.
Conclusion: For
India, the Prediction is wrong and is an overestimate. The flattening in India
is attained much earlier than predicted and probably, a control in the first
week of June is expected for India. For Maharastra, although actual number of
cases are matching to the prediction till 15.05.2020, but again, some flattening
is seen. By next matching on 20.05.2020, it is expected that number of
actual cases will be less than prediction for both India and Maharastra. With
the hope that India can have a plateau in the first week of June 2020, this
post is concluded.
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ReplyDeleteThanks.
DeleteVery good predictions sir. Hope post lockdown we could maintain the same. Regards
ReplyDeleteIndia is improving, but Maharastra is adamant is following my following my prediction. The predicted 30000 total number of cases by 17.05.2020, seems to be a reality for Maharastra. Very bad situation, really, despite lockdown.
DeleteHope this all prediction should not match further also.
ReplyDeleteSir, I have written in my first post of 30.04.2020, that I will be happy, if prediction becomes wrong. India has come up with reduced numbers, from prediction and it is clear that, if no untowards surge is possible, then we can have a turn around in first week of June 2020. HOwever, Situation is grim in Maharastra and it is attaining 30000 total number of infected cases, as on 17.05.2020, as predicted. I am not understanding the purpose of lockdown, if we, as Indians or Maharastrians failed miserably in controlling the spread. Lets hope for the best in future.
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