Analysis of Maharashtra and Delhi on 04.06.2020

Analysis of Maharashtra and Delhi on 04.06.2020

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar

Thanks to all the readers, as previous post of 03.06.32020, about analysis of India crossing 2.0 Lakh total confirmed cases has achieved 50 views.

Introduction: India has only 49% active cases as compared to total confirmed cases on 04.06.2020. Maharashtra is providing the largest number of confirmed cases and Delhi is also not far behind. In the first week of June 2020, it was stated that the rate of rise in number of cases in Maharashtra is reducing and quick control is expected. So, a brief analysis of Maharashtra is attempted, which is attempted in many previous posts of the blog:

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/prediction-of-covid-19-confirmed-case.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/prediction-of-covid-19-in-india-05-may.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/prediction-of-covid-19-in-india-upto-10.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/predictionof-covid-19-in-india-15-may.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/status-of-covid-19-in-maharastra-17-may.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/maharastra-on-21052020-cumulative.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/prediction-status-for-india-and.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/doubling-rate-of-confirmed-cases.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/prediction-and-actual-for-india-on.html

Similarly, Delhi is also contributing significantly and the situation needs a quicker control at the earliest. This post takes into account NCT of Delhi for analysis. At the end of May 2020, situation of Delhi is analysed in the following posts:

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/prediction-of-covid-19-confirmed-case.html

https://himanshushekharscience.blogspot.com/2020/05/tamil-nadu-delhi-and-gujarat-on.html

Analysis for Maharashtra: Total number of confirmed cases on 04.06.2020 at Maharashtra is 74860. Out of this 32329 are recovered and 2587 are deceased case, making it 39944 active cases. The active cases are 53.36% of total confirmed cases. As far as growth factor is concerned, the variation from 01.05.2020 is plotted and the average value is 1.081334, which indicates a slight growth potential of the confirmed cases.

 

The doubling period is improving for Maharashtra over period of time and currently it is at around 15.

 

If a normal distribution curve is fitted to daily number of confirmed cases, with peak value of 3000, turnaround is possible by 08.06.2020.Hope that this is achieved for sure in Maharashtra.

Analysis for Delhi: Delhi has total confirmed cases on 04.06.2020 as 23645, while recovered cases are 9542 and number of deceased are 606. This makes total number of active cases as 13497, a whopping 57%. The growth factor for Delhi is higher from 01.05.2020 to 04.06.2020 as 1.122608 and last 15 days, it was further higher as 1.145051.

The doubling period for Delhi is on the decline and it is a matter of concern to have a control over the rate of rise, so that doubling period is around 15 days.

 

Fitting a normal distribution curve is very difficult for Delhi, as there is sudden rise at around 29.05.2020, which needs a smaller standard deviation, but such fast turnaround is practically not possible. So, a peak daily confirmed cases of around 3000 is assumed, which leads to turnaround date as 30.06.2020 for Delhi. The Pearson coefficient is 0.9425.

 

Attempt is also made with a narrow normal distribution curve and for a peak of 2000 daily confirmed cases, turnaround is expected on 20.06.2020, as shown below. The Pearson coefficient is 0.9416.

  

Conclusion: Percentage active cases of both Maharashtra and Delhi are on higher side as compared to that for India. The growth factor of both the states are slightly above 1, making them prone to higher confirmed cases, in future. The doubling period for Maharashtra is 15 days, and a turnaround for peak daily confirmed cases of 3000 is possible by 08.06.2020. For Delhi with doubling period of 13, the turnaround is possible on 20.06.2020 (optimistic) with peak daily confirmed cases of 2000.

 

Dr Himanshu Shekhar